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International Center / Full Report
China has been hit by the Wuhan pneumonia epidemic (new corona pneumonia, COVID-19), floods and international sanctions this year. The internal and external environment is under pressure. Professor Jin Canrong from the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China recently published an online speech on “Observer”. “Relations with the United States”, pointed out that the epidemic is ravaging the world and African countries have suffered great economic losses; and also stated that “China continues to grow.” However, Jin Canrong also recognized the international reality, namelyThere will be a country that “will overtake China” in the future, which is India.。
▲ Xi Jinping, President of China.
Chinese scholar Jin Canrong mentioned that under the epidemic, all countries have suffered damage, but some countries have suffered particularly badly. For example, among the G20 countries this year, South Africa had the largest economic loss in the second quarter, reaching -51%. In addition, India also reached -23.9%. Jin Canrong stated that China’s economy was growing in the second quarter. He calculated even more boldly: “China’s GDP this year is close to 15 trillion US dollars, and India may shrink a bit. It turns out that we and India are 1: 5. This year it is 1: 6.”
Jin Canrong said that the epidemic will accelerate the change of the original hundred years. It is certainly a catalyst. From the Cold War pattern of Sino-US relations in the past to the rapid changes in international relations today, “a new international pattern” is taking shape compared to the past. Jin Canrong also said that from the G7 Industrial Leaders Summit to the G20 Forum on International Economic Cooperation, this is a new transformation of international multilateral cooperation. With the three industrial revolutions, from the steam age to electrification, and now to information technology, Britain, the United States, and other Western countries have led 300 Years of international politics.
Jin Canrong pointed out that 90% of the systemic manufacturing of human beings is concentrated in the 3 regions of the North Temperate Zone, namely East Asia, Western Europe and North America; There are about 200 countries in the world, and only 1/10 of the countries have the manufacturing industry. He pointed out that the British industrialized 10 million people, the United States has industrialized 100 million people, and China is now continuously industrializing, and the future scale will surpass the entire West.
Jin Canrong said bluntly that 10 million people industrialized in the UK and 100 million people in the United States. If China’s 1.4 billion people can industrialize, there will be no one before and no one to come. But he also admitted: “In the future, there is a country that will surpass China in population, which is India.」，But due to the suppression of the “low status of women” and the “caste system” in the society, she also said that a pre-modern society in India does not have an industrialized ecology. It can develop from Europe, Japan, the United States, South Korea, China, and Russia. Some industries have been introduced, but all ecology is pre-modern, that is your challenge.
▲ Jin Canrong, Professor at Renmin University of China School of International Relations (photo / reproduced from Phoenix Conference Hall)
Jin Canrong also analyzed that the fourth industrial revolution in the future will occur in five areas: the first is new industrial materials. The electrical appliances that everyone uses are made of silicon wafers, called “silicon-based materials.” The industry is now pushing “carbon-based materials / semiconductors”, and the most talked about is “graphene.” “Carbon-based materials” are much more efficient than “silicon-based materials”, but they are not mature now. Once carbon-based materials generally replace silicon-based materials, a new industrial revolution will be unleashed. The other is “genetic engineering”, “artificial intelligence”, “quantum science” and “nuclear fusion”.
Jin Canrong said that the real “fourth industrial revolution” is brewing in these five areas, especially the first three and the last two are too advanced to be used. They may not be used for 50 years. He also candidly said that to participate, relevant countries must always invest money, although this is the direction of human development, it cannot make money. The first three are fine. Jin Canrong stressed that he said with certainty that “in these five areas, China and the United States are now basically moving forward side by side,” and that mainland China has a better ability to “industrialize” technology.
Jin Canrong also found reasons for the increasingly tense relations between China and the United States. “From the perspective of the United States, you see China as such a great figure and such a rapid rise. If you are not nervous, it is not normal, so you will try to deal with China, and the relations between China and the United States will change. The difference is inevitable. “
