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The topic of today’s report is “Who can buy wafer duo and double D?”
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized, “Water can carry and capsize the ship.” Is the capital market really flawless with too much money?
The UK has started vaccinating against the new crown. Most people in the United States are expected to get vaccinated in the second half of next year. The economy will improve and bring inflation immediately. The new king of debt, Gundlach (Jefferey Gundlach), said the US inflation rate will rise by more than 2% next year. The Fed will take precautions and end money printing to rescue the market. Monetary policy will shift to neutral austerity. At the end of the day. Such a major tipping point may occur next spring when tens of millions of Americans are vaccinated.
A leading indicator of rising inflation, the sharp rise in copper prices has led to higher base metals. The South African currency, the commodity currency, has seen the biggest surge in emerging market currencies recently. Next year, small stocks in US stocks will be popular. Russell 2000 is flat this year, but news of the successful development of three vaccines in November Since the announcement, it is up 20%. Nasdaq has soared 40% this year. 40% of the profits are in the big stocks of FAANG and Microsoft. However, rising inflation will be detrimental to earnings from big tech stocks. The bottom line is that inflation is rising and the focus of US stocks has shifted to cyclical stocks and small stocks.
Taiwan stocks and US stocks are looking to the future. The exchange rate for equity shares has risen. The appreciation of the new Taiwan dollar is too strong and unfavorable for exports. The policy, to some extent, deters Taiwanese capital from returning to Taiwan to speculate, but it will not affect the fundamentals.
However, FSC will open regular quotas for Chinese investors to invest in US stocks next year. TSMC (2330-TW) ranks 10th in the world in market value and is currently the only sacred mountain of Taiwanese stocks. However, Apple, Amazon and Tesla in US stocks have not bought regular shares before. The opportunities to move forward, these long lines of protection of the country by the United States remain very attractive.
In the first 10 months of this year, Chinese people once again entrusted investment in foreign stocks to reach NT $ 3 trillion and opened a fixed quota for US stocks. If investors in Taiwanese stocks move forward to protect the country in the United States it will dilute the TSMC buying momentum next year. Furthermore, it will also ease the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar. In the 1980s, the new Taiwan dollar appreciated at 24 yuan, which is the beginning of the opening of Chinese investment in foreign funds. Also next year, Taiwan stocks will be mainstream with cyclical stocks and small and medium stocks. .
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that the benefits of transfer orders are false and real, and the trade war between China and the US begins. In 2018 and 2019, MediaTek (2454-TW), the world’s second-largest mobile phone chip market share, surpassed the head of Qualcomm in terms of share price performance, benefiting Chinese-brand mobile phones Sin However, since the lowest point of the epidemic in March this year, Qualcomm’s stock price has hit a record price of $ 159 from $ 58, a 1.7-fold increase. This year, Qualcomm’s rise is 80%, topping MediaTek’s 68% for the first time, suggesting that the new Biden government is about to come to power. There will be major policy changes, and Qualcomm’s share price will be reflected first.
Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 888 flagship chip, 5G, supports millimeter wave and Sub-6GHz frequency bands, 5nm process, better power and longer battery life. There are already more than a dozen Android mobile phone brands that will use Qualcomm Snapdragon 888. For the new glory divided by Huawei, Qualcomm has the opportunity to supply 5G mobile phone chips. SMIC and a major semiconductor fund joint venture. Qualcomm is a major SMIC customer and has also benefited. This means that MediaTek should be on the alert for more than 700 yuan. It will be reduced.
UMC Transfer Order Profits (2303-TW) are true or false. November revenue was 14.72 billion yuan, the month decreased 3.6%, year-on-year growth 6%, and since July 15,490 million, has not been able to register high income for 4 consecutive months. But this year’s stock price has soared 218%. Compared to TSMC’s September revenue of 127.58 billion yuan, it has set a record. Annual revenue is estimated to increase by 30% annually. UMC has not been able to develop high-end processes below 12 nm. The latest high-end products from major customers will not be ordered from UMC, they will only mature Products are broken due to low production capacity and profitable growth is a specific stage, not a long-term trend.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang stressed that after the share price rises, the requirements and expectations for fundamentals have also increased. News of NOR Flash price increases and transfer orders are flying all over the sky. Macronix (2337-TW) November revenue is 3.01 billion yuan, a monthly decrease of 21%, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. From the peak revenue of 4.66 billion yuan in September, it has declined by 35%, indicating that operations have entered the low season, and the first quarter of next year is also low season.
Winbond (2344-TW) revenue in November was 6.67 billion yuan. The month was down 2.7% and year-on-year growth of 64.5%. Fearing to win heads and lose, Nuvoton (4919-TW) acquired Matsushita Semiconductor from Japan. Revenues have increased, but the semiconductor continues to lose money and may need to be recognized. The share price has doubled in the last two months and has entered a high-end state.
Taiwanese stocks are popular with the three main groups, wafer duo, panel, and memory. Memory South Asia (2408-TW) had revenue of 4.89 billion yuan in November, MoM grew 2%, YoY grew 15%, ADATA (3260-TW) had revenue of 3.12 billion yuan in November, MoM grew by 8 %, YoY grew 23%, the two memories hit a new high on Wednesday due to double revenue growth.
On the surface of the capital market, stocks go up every day, but they lack performance. They are only based on the news. The average investor can see them, can’t eat them, and gets stuck when he gets them. Only income figures can support long-term stock price performance.
US foreign companies raised panel maker AUO’s price target (2409-TW) to 18.5 yuan. The reason is that the panel was up 15-20% in the fourth quarter. Increased by 0.88%, year over year increased by 21.9%. Innolux (3481-TW) November’s revenue was 26.09 billion yuan, the month grew by 4.5%, year-on-year growth of 21.3%, and double tiger panel revenue showed a double increase. Compared with UMC, Winbond, Macronix, the fourth quarter has more growth AUO’s revenue in the fourth quarter is estimated at 76.6 billion yuan, which will increase by 5% during the third quarter. With the increase in panel prices, the gross profit margin has increased from 10.59% in the third quarter to 15%, an increase of 4 More than one percentage point.
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