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Text / Wu Derong
Sanli quasi-weather ‧ boss reveals secret
The latest “Route Potential Prediction Map” (left image) (2 o’clock on day 2) from the Central Meteorological Office shows Typhoon No. 19 “Swan” has been ground damaged and weakened to “slight”. Today entered the South China Sea (2), Wednesday and Thursday (4 and 5), invaded Vietnam again, due to the remoteness of Taiwan, there is no impact. Typhoon 20 “Lightning” (pictured left) is heading northwest and slows down. It will remain in the direction of Luzon from tomorrow (3). The red frame of the “Potential Prediction Map” expands to show the path “Uncertainty” is high.
The latest ensemble model from the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) (at 20 o’clock on the 1st) shows that the “lightning bolt” is gradually approaching the bifurcation point tomorrow (right image). Due to the weakening of the pilot airflow, it appears to be turning, and the subsequent simulation trajectory is very scattered, the number of northward turns from the East Taiwan Sea is small, while the number of people entering the Sea from South China through Luzon to the west is relatively large. Because the simulation routes are very different and the “uncertainty” is high, in the future, even if the route moves west, the distance between the route and Taiwan will determine how far the water vapor in the periphery it will affect the northern and eastern half of Taiwan after Friday (6). It needs to be observed.
This (2) morning is still affected by radiation cooling. At 5 o’clock, the lowest temperature on the flat earth is about 17 or 18 degrees (Miaoli Xihu Township 17.4 degrees, Hsinchu Emei Township 17.5 degrees, Nantou Zhongliao Township 18.0 degrees and District of Xinbei Shuangxi 18.3 degrees.). The latest model simulation from the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) shows that the western half of today is still sunny and cloudy; the north coast, the mountainous areas in the north and the eastern half have a slight increase in humidity, which is cloudy with occasional partial rains. Tonight, the northeast wind strengthened and cold air began to move south, and there was some temporary rain in Greater Taipei and the northeast. The flat earth temperature in each region is as follows: 18 to 29 degrees in the north, 18 to 33 degrees in the middle, 19 to 33 degrees in the south, and 20 to 30 degrees in the east.
The latest simulation of the model shows that from tomorrow (3) to Thursday (5) the northeast wind will affect the northeast wind, northern Taiwan will be cooler, and there will be occasional short-term rains in Greater Taipei and the eastern half. ; Taoyuan is cloudy, southern Hsinchu has little impact, and it is still sunny and cloudy. Weather. Will the water vapor increase in the northern and eastern half from Friday to next Sunday (6-8)? Has the rain become obvious? It depends on the trajectory of Typhoon “Lightning” and must be observed again.
▲ Left: The last (2 o’clock from 2) “Route Potential Prediction Map” from the Central Weather Office shows that Typhoon No. 19 “Swan” entered the South China Sea today (2), Wednesday and Thursday (4, 5) Invaded Vietnam. Typhoon No. 20 “Rayo” is heading northwest, moving at a slower speed and will remain for the next (3) day before turning towards Luzon Island. The red frame of the “Potential Forecast Map” expands and the path is “uncertain” Very high. Right: The latest ensemble model from the European Center for Mid-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) (20 o’clock) shows that the “lightning bolt” gradually approaches the fork point tomorrow, showing a rotation phenomenon, and then the simulation route it is widely dispersed, from the eastern sea to northern Taiwan. The number of turns is relatively small, and the number of turns to the South China Sea is greater through the outskirts of Luzon to the west.
