[ad_1]
Text / Wu Derong
Sanli quasi-weather ‧ boss reveals secret
This morning (23) the mid-level cloud system moved (image on the left), the echo was not strong and the range was large (image on the middle), and it has brought rain to various places (image on the right) . The cold air weakened slightly and there was no “radiative cooling”, and the minimum temperature everywhere increased significantly (around 3-4 degrees). The lowest temperature at 5 o’clock: about 17 degrees in the north (16.9 degrees in Wugu District, New Taipei City), about 17 degrees in the middle (16.7 degrees in Zhongliao Township, Nantou), about 17 degrees in the south (17.4 degrees in Baihe district, Tainan) and about 17 degrees in the east. (17.0 degrees in Wanrong Township, Hualien).
The latest European Center for Mid-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) model simulation (at 20 o’clock on the 22nd) shows that today the average water vapor in the South China Sea is moving again, and there is a possibility of local rain in several places, and there are heavy rains on the north coast, the northern mountainous area and the northeast. The low temperature has increased in several places, but the cloud cover is greater, the high temperature has dropped slightly, and the temperature difference between day and night has narrowed; Northern Taiwan is humid and cool, and other areas are a bit cooler as well. The flat earth temperature in each district is as follows: 17 to 21 degrees in the north, 17 to 23 degrees in the middle, 17 to 24 degrees in the south, and 17 to 24 degrees in the east. On the 24th, the northeast monsoon descends to the south and the low temperature drops. There will be rain north of Hsinchu early in the morning, and the range of rainfall will be reduced during the day. There will be some short-term rains in the eastern and eastern half of Taipei, and southern Taoyuan will turn sunny and cloudy.
The results of the latest simulation of the model have been reported by the media: “Beijing will remain wet and cold until next year.” The situation is very different, because on Friday (25) there will be 5 consecutive days of mostly sunny and stable weather. On Friday, the western half is sunny and cloudy, and there may be occasional partial rains in the eastern half and the northern coast. On Saturday (26) and next Sunday (27), all places are sunny and stable, warm and comfortable and cool in the morning and in the evening. Next Monday (28), a small dry wind from the northeast will move to the south. The places are still sunny and cloudy. Only the north coast and the northeast part of the country have slightly increased cloud cover and there is the possibility of a small amount of rain. From next Monday afternoon to Tuesday (29), all places are sunny and stable, warm and comfortable and cool in the morning and in the evening.
The latest European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) modes are simulated. Next Wednesday (30) the front will pass, and the “strongest winter” super cold air will continue to the south, and the temperature will drop sharply and cool down later. Next Thursday and Friday (31 and 1) the temperature will be extremely low, but it will be extremely dry and cold. With the force of European and American model simulations, the minimum temperature in the northern Taiwan metropolitan area can be lowered to less than 10 degrees, and the minimum temperature in other flat areas can be lowered to about 6 or 7 degrees. Since it is a simulation at the end of the period, there is uncertainty! Will the model weaken and only meet the definition of “strong continental air mass”? Or will it be maintained or reinforced to meet the definition of “cold stream”? It must be kept under observation.
Image: The tint-enhanced infrared cloud image is shown today at 4:30 am (Day 23), and the intermediate cloud system has moved (left image). The 4:30 radar echo composite image shows that the echo is not strong but the range is great (middle image). The cumulative precipitation graph at 4:30 shows that it has brought rain to various locations (right image).
