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The new coronary pneumonia epidemic hit the world economy, and the US non-manufacturing PMI. USA It fell to 52.5 in March, the biggest decline in 12 years; At the end of March, the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States also increased to 6.65 million, beating the financial tsunami period and making history. The new high shows that the epidemic has affected the performance of the real economy. . Sheng Jiying, deputy general manager of the Taishin Bank’s wealth and commodity management department, suggested that the public be advised to organize the bonds in the short term and reduce US and technology stocks in the long term.
Taishin Bank noted that the epidemic is rampant, world central banks have adopted interest rate cuts and unlimited QE plans, the United States government is also promoting a financial stimulus plan of up to $ 2 trillion (representing almost the 10% of U.S. GDP), and other countries are expected to follow up. According to Morgan Stanley estimates, the full scale of fiscal stimulus launched by governments reached $ 3.1 trillion, far exceeding the $ 900 billion level during the 2008 financial tsunami. This wave is expected of loose monetary policy and a fiscal stimulus plan reduce the economic shock caused by the epidemic.
Sheng Jiying said that due to the epidemic, the surge in demand for cash has caused high-investment-grade bonds to lose their original hedging function prices and thus fall. After the global central bank injects liquidity, its price is expected to have a quick response; in addition, the global price The central bank maintains a loose monetary environment. After this decline in emerging market dollar bonds and high yield bonds with priority guarantees, the advantage of high yields emerged. The public can choose their own risk attributes and risk tolerance to increase cash flow in a low return environment.
Ultimately, as economists estimate that the impact of the epidemic on the economy will be concentrated in the second quarter, deferred demand will recover after the epidemic is under control. The boom is expected in the second half of this year and next year to return to normal. The scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus is large, and US stocks have been revised to correct the file. The evaluation advantage gradually emerges. Long-term US stocks are expected to play a leading role in the stock market recovery and economic recovery.
From an industrial perspective, long-distance office and housing economics industries that are responding to epidemic prevention needs must rely on 5G high-speed computing. Under the catalysis of the epidemic, the application of 5G-related technologies is expected to be the main trend for long-term development in the future. Sheng Jiying suggested that long-term design can be carried out when the market is very volatile in the second quarter. Regular long-term fixed investment can be used to enter the potential market for US stocks and technology stocks. Through the regular fixed smile curve, you can dominate the future recovery market.
Taishin Bank monitors and evaluates changes in the financial market in real time, and builds a smart “Chi Duo Xin” wealth management platform to provide individuals with a diversified investment portfolio. People can use the smart wealth management platform to master long-term investment opportunities and automatically adjust investment strategies when they are at home or at home. Instantly respond to market changes. Sheng Jiying added that in addition to the recommended investment portfolio, “Zhi Duoxin” also gives people the opportunity to participate in portfolio decision-making and can select targets based on their personal views on trends in the market.
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