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After constantly complaining about fraud in the general elections in November last year, the Burmese army launched a coup on the 1st and arrested the substantive leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is a state councilor, and another ruling “National League for the Democracy “(National League for Democracy).) The party’s top leaders have ended their ten-year mockery of democracy.
The military then announced on the television channel that the country had entered a state of emergency for a year, during which the commander-in-chief of the armed forces Min Aung Hlaing would take power. After the end of the state of emergency, Myanmar will once again hold general elections. VOX News Network pointed out on Day 1 that it is still unclear what will happen in a year, but some people doubt the military will remain in power.
Some people worry that supporters will break out into violent clashes to defend Aung San Suu Kyi. On the 1st, the NLD posted Aung San Suu Kyi’s statement on the official Facebook website: “I strongly urge everyone not to accept it, but wholeheartedly resist the military coup.” Later, NLD spokesperson Win Htein (Win Htein)) also called on supporters to oppose the coup in a non-violent manner, as requested by Aung San Suu Kyi.
However, with the top NLD leaders in custody and the military regaining power, I don’t know how Burmese democracy activists will reverse the latest developments. Darin Self, a Southeast Asian military expert at Cornell University, said the military is putting limits on what Myanmar’s democracy could look like.
Since 1948, Myanmar has been fighting between democracy and the military government. However, the Tatmadaw has always had the greatest power. In the late 1980s, under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi, the democratic movement gradually gained momentum.
However, the ruling military government put her under house arrest in 1989. Because Aung San Suu Kyi has been fighting for democracy non-violently for many years, she won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. The international community does not she was satisfied with the Burmese dictatorship and also took action. For example, the United States has imposed sanctions on Myanmar for decades, hoping to force the military to carry out democratic reforms and stop human rights violations.
To end the economic and political isolation, Myanmar’s high-level armed forces decided to adopt a more democratic system. They spent five years drafting the constitution, which was approved in 2008. The most notable of these is ensuring that the military enjoy at least 25% of the seats in parliament. This is very important because any new constitutional clause must be approved by more than 75% of parliamentarians before it can be established.
In fact, in this way the military can veto any attempt to change the rules of the game. This will not only allow the government of Myanmar to demonstrate democracy, but it will never jeopardize the control of the Myanmar Defense Forces. Because of this, the military government ended Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest in 2010 on the condition that she never be president. However, the Myanmar Defense Forces gradually lost control. Self said the military may not understand how popular the NLD would be.
In 2015, recognized as Myanmar’s first democratic election in 25 years, Aung San Suu Kyi led the NLD and won 77% of parliament. In the second year, she earned the bespoke title of “Councilor of State,” ruling through the alliance president. As a result, the United States lifted its 20-year sanctions on Myanmar.
To be honest, Aung San Suu Kyi’s leadership is not necessarily bad for the military. The most obvious is the 2017 massacre of Rohingya Muslims by the Myanmar National Defense Forces and the gang rape of these minority women. Not only did he support the military, but he also served as relevant generals at the United Nations International Court of Justice. Justice) speaks.
However, Aung San Suu Kyi’s constant refusal to condemn the brutality of the military seriously damaged her international credibility. Although he still holds the Nobel Peace Prize, other international organizations have withdrawn awards from him for his promotion of democracy.
Self noted that the military is likely to believe that the 2008 constitution gave them unfair treatment. Yes, they still have great power, but Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD are aggressively closing in, jeopardizing their influence. The coup by the military to regain power will not only revise the constitution and weaken the democratic movement, it will also consolidate the supreme role of the military. He said that the military regained power so it means that they can renegotiate with a strong position.
On the other hand, Aaron Connelly, director of the Southeast Asia project of the British think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said that the Myanmar military may believe it is threatened by the high popularity of Aung San Suu Kyi without warning, and therefore he acted.
Burmese armed forces and civilians live in different areas, with their own school system, television station, and even hospitals. Perhaps it was not until the November 2020 general election that the NLD led by Aung San Suu Kyi achieved an overwhelming victory, that the military had just awakened from its slumber and understood that the original strategy did not work. Therefore, they should take the opportunity to choose a new path.
Sarah Bouchat, an expert from Northwestern University, believes that Myanmar’s military may want to seize power as much as possible while world leaders are busy responding to the new corona pneumonia epidemic, the economic recession and other crises. Yet the Biden administration is not distracted by the epidemic, the White House has already condemned the coup in Myanmar, and Biden has also threatened to reinstate sanctions.
(Zhongshi News Network)
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