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The subject of today’s report is “Two stocks that follow the extreme greed of American stocks.”
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that US stocks are now extremely greedy and that the Dow Jones index has reached 30,000 points, setting a new record. The fear and greed index can quantify investor sentiment. 0 to 20 means extreme fear and 75 to 100 means extreme greed. In the worst of the epidemic in March, the index fell below 25 points, which is a buying point. At the time, the Dow Jones Index was at a low of 18,217. Now the Dow Jones stands at 30,000 points, rewriting an all-time high, with an index of 88 points, showing extreme greed.
The 30,000 points of the Dow Jones index may not be the highest point, but extreme greed should be relatively high. The risk is increasing. The two driving forces behind greed are vaccines and Biden.
Since November, three vaccines have been successfully developed. Major US stocks have changed. Since this month, energy stocks have risen 37%, financial stocks have risen 19% and industrial stocks have risen 18%, but technology stocks have risen only 9%. The vaccine has caused economic recovery. Based on the expected psychology of the US stock market this year, earnings from US stocks are concentrated in tech stocks that have benefited from the epidemic’s real estate economy and long-distance trading opportunities. Energy stocks earnings, financial and industrial lag behind. At this point, greedy funds seized undervalued stocks.
Although inventories in plasticizing, shipping and steel cycles rose on Wednesday, Taiwan shares opened higher and fell as electronics stocks fell. Because the structure of Taiwan stocks was different from that of US stocks, stocks that benefited from the opening of the economy, such as tourism and aviation, increased. , But the domestic demand market for US shares. Although international airlines have been significantly suspended, domestic airlines still have a certain scale.
On the eve of Thanksgiving, there were 3 million domestic air passengers in the United States in a single day, and the United States domestic aviation market was dominated by the four major airlines. It makes sense for American Airlines’ AAL to rise 9% on Tuesday, but it still plunged more than 40% this year. On Wednesday, China Airlines (2610-TW) and Evergreen Airlines (2618-TW) rose 7% and 4% respectively. They were up 9% and held steady respectively. One is that the decline is not as strong as that of US airlines and the other is that Taiwan does not have a large domestic demand market, so it is better to take advantage of the short term than the long term.
High-end vaccine (6547-TW) The national vaccine has obtained a letter of intent for cooperation with Malaysian manufacturers. In 2021, up to 3 million doses, worth 4.2 billion, will go on Wednesday. Modena and the high-end vaccine come from the same laboratory as the NIH of the National Institutes of Health. Currently, the high-end vaccine has entered Phase II human trials, but this case must be licensed by Taiwan and required by Malaysian regulations before it can be supplied.
In fact, looking at US vaccine stocks, the selling point for the band has already emerged. Pfizer is down 13% from a high of $ 42, because more and more vaccines have been successfully developed, dispersing the purchase of vaccine stocks. Typically 100 days after the new president takes office is the stock honeymoon period, but this time, since the Trump administration allowed the transfer of power, Biden entered the honeymoon period. November 24. Biden announced that the list of cabinet members has been confirmed by the market, especially the former Fed. President Yellen is appointed finance minister. The Fed’s monetary policy tools have been exhausted with a near zero interest rate and fiscal policy is needed. Yellen is the best candidate.
The cabinet list is the biggest driving force behind Biden’s greed and speculation. Secretary of State John Kerry (John Kerry) of the Obama era promoted the Paris climate agreement. This time he was appointed climate envoy, empowering President Biden, with more power than the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of the Interior and the Environmental Protection Agency. Department said that Biden’s two trillion green political views are genuine.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that wind power, solar power and electric vehicles from Taiwanese equities are the most durable speculative markets for Biden during the honeymoon period. On Wednesday, Solar Yuanjing (6443-TW) and Shuohe (3691-TW) took the lead in creating new high prices. Guoshuo (2406-TW) and Anji (6477-TW) are close to the high point, Xinguang Steel (2031-TW) wind power reached a new high, and ZTE (1513-TW) is close to the high point. Electric vehicles including Weisheng (2231-TW), Tongzhi (3552-TW), Changyuanke (8038-TW) and Juhe (6509-TW) set new highs.
The actions of the green energy concept will depend on the results of the elections for the second seat of the Georgia senator on January 5 next year. If the Senate is still controlled by the Republican Party, these greedy speculations will end. Greed is human nature, and speculation should follow two principles: the first is global speculation, not just Taiwan stocks, and the second is following the big players.
Continental’s EVs and New Energy Vehicle ADR have soared 66% since November, Xiaopeng Motors soared 245% and Ideal Cars soared 92%. Next, Bitcoin hit the soaring price of US $ 20,000, the blockchain has collectively risen, Canaan Technology CAN ADR mining is up 135% since November, the 9th city NCTY is up 90%, and Renren’s RENN has up 87%.
Unexplored territory, the space of imagination to dream is the largest. Bitcoin has more investment mobility than solar energy, because it is impossible to know how many new and innovative uses Bitcoin will have in the future. America’s largest online payment PayPal and the American version of Alipay bought 70% of the new supplies recently. Bitcoin The biggest change brought about by innovative fintech companies is the creation of new demand. Managers of US asset management companies and other large players aggressively intervened in Bitcoin, causing the traditional target gold risk aversion to fall. to a 4-month low, dropping to one ounce. 1,800 USD.
The special phenomenon of the fall of gold and the rise of Bitcoin. When Bitcoin is inactive for three years, it will not exceed the last high of $ 20,000 and will immediately terminate. The greed of the big players is not dangerous, and the end of the market will be when the retail shoes are crazy. The new Supermicro AMD and Huida NVIDIA graphics cards are out of stock and won’t be able to meet market demand until the first quarter of next year.
Carton card mill’s revenue in the fourth quarter showed a quarterly decline, which makes no sense on the surface. However, there is still a wave of mining in ETH on China-dominated mining farms. The market value of Ether is second only to Bitcoin. It is the second largest cryptocurrency and one of the cryptocurrencies that PayPal allows customers to pay for early next year. It’s skyrocketed 300% this year, topping Bitcoin’s 165%, fueling demand for the previous generation of vintage graphics cards, and the price has risen rather than fallen. In the third quarter, the inventory increase of domestic graphics card manufacturers in ASRock (3515-TW), Dangxun (6150-TW), Leadtek (2465-TW), Qingyun (5386-TW) unexpectedly benefited.
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