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The subject of today’s report is “When will Bitcoin concept stocks skyrocket?”
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that there really is too much money. The US elections are over and the success of vaccine research and development has led to optimism in the market. International funds flooded the stock funds. US equity funds topped the list, creating $ 32.4 billion last week. The new record for net inflows, which seized the dominance of global equity funds, sent the Dow Jones index, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all-time highs.
The funds will then flow to emerging markets. Emerging Asian funds have a net inflow of funds for 8 consecutive weeks. Last week’s gold inflows were up 10 times from the previous week to $ 3.9 billion. The Taiwanese and South Korean stock markets have come into the spotlight.
Shares in Taiwan are up 14.8% this year and shares in South Korea are up 15.5% this year. In particular, Taiwan stocks have rewritten their all-time highs and are more attractive to international funds. The depreciation of the US dollar creates collective anxiety among individuals and institutions that hold a large number of US dollar positions. The US dollar is the world’s largest currency in circulation, accounting for 40% and as powerful as an atomic bomb.
Citigroup has a terrifying prediction on the US dollar. If vaccines are widely available and the world economy and trade revive, the US dollar will start to fall by as much as 20% in 2021. The US dollar saw the biggest drop in 1985, falling 18.5%. Tokyo that year The Plaza Accord, the appreciation of the yen against the US dollar, triggered the stock market bubble and the Japanese housing bubble. The following year it was Taiwan’s turn, and the New Taiwan Dollar also appreciated against the US Dollar. Shares in Taiwan rose less than 800 points to a sky-high price of 12,682 in five years. Points, rising 14 times.
The safest hedge investment for the richest people in the United States is to invest in Asian funds in US dollars, first to get a wave of appreciation of the Asian currency exchange rate. The new Taiwan dollar has appreciated 5.3% against the US dollar and the Korean won 4.3% this year. To make money from the increasing price difference of Asian stocks, foreign investors will, of course, buy the largest weighted stocks on the Taiwanese and South Korean stock markets. TSMC (2330-TW) and Samsung Electronics have rewritten all-time highs. Since the low of the epidemic in March, they have risen 115% respectively. And 55%.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized, but how long will the capital frenzy last? Let’s look at the two-seat senatorial election in Georgia on January 5 of next year. If the Democratic Party takes both seats and controls the Senate, Biden can make up the fiscal deficit through tax increases, and there is no need to print money. I’m afraid this wave of funds. It’s over. Rather, the Republican Party controls the Senate and effectively controls and balances Biden’s tax increase plan. Biden can only print money. Citi’s dire predictions will come true. The financing market next year will be even more alarming. However, the global epidemic is serious and vaccines are not a short-term panacea. There is still the risk of a second economic recession in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. The stock market is running too fast, but the fundamentals can’t keep up.
In fact, foreign investors are rushing to buy stocks with the right value and the PE ratio is no longer low. TSMC’s EPS for the first three quarters was 14.47 yuan, and the annual estimate was 19 yuan. The PE ratio of 500 yuan or more is 26 times. In fact, Apple’s PE ratio is only 30 times. MediaTek’s EPS (2454-TW) in the first three quarters was 16.64 yuan, and the annual estimate was 23 yuan. The P / E ratio of 700 yuan or more is 30 times. The stock selection logic of local funds will look for TSMC and MediaTek’s P / E ratio below half. Potential stocks and stocks with a P / E ratio of 13 to 15 times or less.
Apple Mac laptops shipped 6 million units last quarter, an annual increase of 39%. Shipments in the fourth quarter are optimistic and are expected to hit new highs. The supply chain of the scissor keyboard and light guide plate for Mac laptops, Maolin-KY (4935-TW) The EPS of the first three quarters is 7.13 yuan, the annual estimate is 10 yuan, and the P / E ratio is only 12 times. Binchuan keyboard stand (1569-TW), EPS of the first three quarters is 2.54 yuan, the annual estimate is 3.3 yuan, and the P / E ratio is only 10 times. Jingyuan (2387-TW) keyboard EPS of the first three quarters is 4.25 yuan, the annual estimate is 5.5 yuan, the P / E ratio is only 12 times, the Kejia keyboard membrane touch switch- KY (5215-TW) EPS of the first three quarters is 8.98 yuan, the annual estimate A 12 yuan, the ratio of PE is only 12 times.
Of course, some people are looking for stocks whose share price is still negative this year. Largan’s EPS (3008-TW) is 131 yuan in the first three quarters, and the annual estimate is 180 yuan. The P / E ratio is only 20 times, far behind TSMC and MediaTek. Largan was up 6% on Wednesday, and has not risen to this level this year. The stock price still has a negative return of 28%. According to the same logic, Apple’s deepest stock Hon Hai (2317-TW) has EPS 4.03 yuan in the first three quarters, and is estimated at 7 yuan for the whole year, and the PE ratio is only 12 times.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang stressed that under the capital frenzy, most stocks should have a slice of the pie and stocks rotate, but it is impossible for only a few stocks to take the lead, but the scariest thing is Bitcoin. Speculation is inevitable. Bitcoin hit $ 18,000 in intraday trading on Wednesday, a three-year high. It must be effectively traded between $ 17,000 and $ 18,000 in a short period of time to challenge the all-time high of $ 20,000.
The last time Bitcoin soared from $ 1,000 to $ 20,000 in 2017, a 20-fold increase. It was bought by Chinese, mainly retail investors. This time it was bought by Americans, mainly institutions. Due to the depreciation trend of the US dollar, the use of Bitcoin can hedge risks effectively. There is an investment logic that will never change, that is, bottoming out in pessimism, arising in doubt, sprouting from optimism, and taking the lead in fanaticism.
Before the influx of retail investors, Bitcoin is safe. Retail investors may flock after Bitcoin hits $ 20,000 and then hit $ 40,000, which will be dangerous at that point. Google’s search volume for Bitcoin is currently only 10% from the peak of $ 20,000 in 2017, which means that the Bitcoin concept shares still have room to climb.
Graphics card group shocked news (6150-TW) has nearly 100 yuan, speculation is targeting low-priced Qingyun (5386-TW), 4 consecutive daily limits, Low-priced Leadtek (2465-TW), Biostar (2399 – TW) will offset the profits and finally distribute the profits to fans, power supplies, power-KY (6591-TW), Group Power (6412-TW), Haiyun Power (6203-TW) related to graphics cards.
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