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While the United States is absent from the diplomatic arena, China continues to expand its influence in Southeast Asia. Recently, at the ASEAN Summit, the Beijing authorities called for the creation of the world’s largest commercial zone, promising to promote regional prosperity and provide vaccines.
After eight years of negotiations, the “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership” (RCEP) agreement encompassing 10 ASEAN countries and 15 countries from China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia is finally scheduled to be signed last. day of the ASEAN meeting this Sunday (15). , 15 countries also agreed to reserve the pipeline to join India in the future, which withdrew from negotiations last year.
RCEP member states are responsible for 30% of global economic output, which will become the world’s largest trade deal after signing.
The RCEP is seen as a trade deal in which China takes the lead against the United States, and because the tariffs to be canceled are lower than other trade deals, it has become an excellent stage for China to exert trade influence. Due to the successful control of the epidemic, China has led other major countries in economic growth this year and the signing of the RCEP will bring more benefits.
Nikkei News reported that while some member states were jealous of China’s rise, the United States focused on the domestic epidemic and the presidential elections, allowing Beijing to gain an advantage in the diplomatic arena.
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As of Friday, the United States showed no signs of participating in Saturday’s ASEAN Leaders Summit.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) noted that RCEP is putting tremendous pressure on US President-elect Biden. The United States originally planned to take the initiative to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) to create an Asia-Pacific free trade area, but Trump withdrew immediately after taking office. The remaining 11 countries including Japan, Australia, Canada and Mexico (excluding China) will facilitate 2018 Signing the smaller “Comprehensive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” (CPTPP).
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute for Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand, said: “The exclusion of the United States from the RCEP may give Washington more incentive to return to the trade agreement.”
Biden said last year that he tried to renegotiate the TPP, but considering that trading partners may require more concessions, many people in the United States still have doubts about large-scale trade deals, and renegotiations are not easy.
Japan and more fear the rise of China
On the one hand, Japan hopes to sell more products to China, on the other hand, due to the tense trade relationship between the United States and China since Trump assumed the presidency of the United States, Japan has been reluctant to sign the RCEP.
Nikkei noted that Trump’s defeat in the election now prompted Japan to make a decision. A source familiar with the Japanese government’s thinking said: “Trump’s defeat in the presidential election was one of the reasons that led Japan to sign the RCEP.”
Since the United States is not a member of the RCEP negotiations, Japan originally hoped that India would be able to compete with China, but in the end, India did not return to the negotiating table.
China is expected to pressure Southeast Asian countries at Saturday’s summit to demand concessions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China announced a bill on maritime security on November 4, authorizing the Chinese Coast Guard to fire on foreign ships to protect artificial islands in the South China Sea.
Vietnam, the rotating presidency, was the only participating country that voiced opposition. Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said the disputes in the South China Sea are expected to be resolved by peaceful means. All sectors must respect the rule of law and uphold common values.
Trade relations between China and Australia are delicate
Australia is trying to maintain a delicate trade relationship with China. After Australia responded to the United States earlier this year to investigate the origin of the benefits of the new corona pneumonia, authorities in Beijing placed restrictions on the importation of beef, barley and red wine from Australia.
Jeffrey Wilson, a foreign policy think tank from the University of Western Australia and a trade expert from the Perth May Asia Center, said that although Beijing is also a member of the RCEP, this trade agreement will help Australia implement diversification of exports and reduce its dependence on China. “If Australia cannot export into China, RCEP is really a boon to help Australia enter these markets.”
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