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In trading on Tuesday (10), after the biggest one-day gain in more than 5 months on the previous calendar, crude oil futures prices have expanded again because the market is optimistic about the prospects for the vaccine. COVID-19, although the continued spread of the epidemic has affected fuel. demand.
Phil Flynn, Senior Analyst at Price Futures Group, said: “Due to the hope for a new corona vaccine, the demand outlook has improved and there is a shortage of oil funds.”
“The market had previously expected more restrictions and shutdowns on activities, and expected demand to be further disrupted. Therefore, although the vaccine is still months away from launch, traders must adjust to the prospect of return in demand. and the speed of recovery in demand. It may be faster than the speed of production. “
- The price of WTI crude oil futures for December delivery rose 1.07 dollars, or almost 2.7%, to close at 41.36 dollars a barrel.
- The price of Brent crude futures for January delivery rose $ 1.21, or nearly 2.9%, to close at $ 43.61 a barrel.
On Monday, WTI crude oil was up 8.5% and Brent crude soared 7.5%, as Pfizer (PFE-US) and BioNTech (BNTX-US) announced that their new crown candidate vaccine is 90 % effective in preventing new corona virus and has no prior SARS infection. CoV-2 evidence encourages investors to flock to risky assets.
However, some analysts questioned how much oil prices could rise in the near future after the surge in new crown boxes in Europe and the United States began to put pressure on consumers and business activities.
JBC Energy, a Vienna-based consulting firm, mentioned in an analysis report on Tuesday: “Although successful vaccine development should eventually support oil demand to return to normal levels, it still faces many hurdles at this stage, including final approval, mass production, logistics, etc. ” But the market hopes that immediate vaccine development can avoid the need for further lockdown in the future. “
The consultancy noted that its European road mobility indicators have fallen to their lowest point since June, as data as of November 6 began to reflect the early stages of new lock policies in France and Germany.
Analysts at the Commercial Bank of Germany noted that China’s crude oil imports in October fell to the lowest level since April, while Saudi Arabia offered Asian customers more discounts for December shipments. “This may be due to weak demand and / Compared to the reference price in Dubai, there is a discount of 50 cents per barrel of oil and customers can enjoy the highest discount since June.”
The EIA will release last week’s power supply report on Thursday, because Wednesday is Veterans Day and is a federal holiday, but commodities are traded as usual on that day.
According to an S&P Global Platts survey, analysts expect crude oil supply to decline by 3 million barrels on average, gasoline inventories to decline by 600,000 barrels, and distillate oil to decline by 2 million barrels last week (through November 6th).
The EIA lowered its WTI and Brent crude oil price forecasts for this year and next in its monthly report released Tuesday. The EIA now expects WTI crude oil prices for 2020 to average US $ 38.24, 1.3% less than the October forecast. The EIA also lowered its forecast for Brent crude prices this year by 1.4% to $ 40.61.
Trade in other energy raw materials
- The price of gasoline futures for December delivery rose 2.9% to close at $ 1.1941 a gallon.
- The price of hot fuel oil futures for December delivery rose 2.9% to close at $ 1.2525 per gallon.
- The price of natural gas futures for December delivery rose almost 3.2% to close at US $ 2,949 per million Btu.
The EIA’s weekly natural gas supply data will be released on Friday, also due to the holiday on Wednesday.
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