[ad_1]
The subject of today’s report is “The Emergence of a New Mainstream Fund Stocks in the American Elections.”
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that the financial market is not afraid of bad news, but more afraid of uncertain factors. No clear outcome on US Presidential Election Day The US stock market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Trump won the election in 2016 and US stocks fell one day. This is a long-term pattern because President Trump implemented tax cuts.
If Trump is re-elected, I’m afraid the profit model from the tax cuts won’t be easy to replicate. At the time of the 2016 election, the Dow Jones index was just 17,000 points. At the low end, it’s easy to reflect the gains from tax cuts. Now it is 27,000 points. Up.
Also, if Biden wins, I’m afraid the US stock market will pull back after a celebration or two, because Biden advocated for tax increases, but the scariest situation is the replay of Bush’s fight against Gore in 2000, and none of them. More than 270 electoral votes were finally appealed to the Supreme Court for arbitration. After lengthy litigation, the result was just 36 days later, on December 12, causing the Dow Jones Index to drop from 10,996 points to 10,299 points, a drop of 700 points. 6%.
The US stock market in 2000 didn’t rebound until after December 21, but don’t forget that in that year’s internet bubble, US stocks had already fallen 30% before the election. general. Therefore, the general elections were controversial and only fell 6%.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that from the lowest point of the new corona epidemic this year, the Dow Jones has recovered by 50%. Therefore, if there is an electoral dispute, the drop may be more serious than that of the year. After the election, the American stock market will return to the fundamental test of the epidemic. .
Goldman Sachs slashed its European economic forecast for the fourth quarter. GDP in the fourth quarter will contract by 2.3% and the previous estimate will grow by 2.2%. This is a major change. This is due to the increase in confirmed cases of the new crown. Great Britain, Germany, France, Spain, these big GDPs European countries have blocked the whole country. The new lockdown will run for at least three months, and the ban won’t be lifted until February next year.
The situation in the United States is similar to that in Europe. Therefore, GDP for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year has a high probability of recession. If we do not enter a new round of stimulus plan as soon as possible, the GDP recession may be even greater.
In late March, the US Congress approved a US $ 2.2 trillion relief fund, and the post-election ladder is expected to exceed US $ 2 trillion. This causes the US fiscal year 2020 budget deficit to skyrocket to US $ 3.13 trillion as of September 30, rewriting the record. The deficit will reach US $ 21.9 trillion, reaching 104.4% of GDP. The United States has joined the ranks of Japan, Italy and Greece with debts exceeding GDP. This will make the US dollar bearish in the long run.
In this year’s election year, the US dollar index has fallen 4% and Goldman Sachs believes it will fall another 15% through 2023. Hence, safe-haven funds are flooding gold and Bitcoin. Gold is up 20% this year, and Bitcoin is up 90%. Bitcoin has recently hit a high of $ 14,000 last year. The monthly K has shown a large W bottom, which is expected to challenge the sky-high price of $ 20,000.
Biden clearly did not win on Wednesday, causing his green energy concept stocks and solar energy performance to stabilize. Only the electric vehicles from Changyuanke (8038-TW) and Tongzhi (3552-TW) shot to the limit. The State Council of China announced automotive power. According to the plan, the share of new energy vehicle sales in 2025 will reach 20%. Electric vehicles are backed by the policies of China and the United States. The long-term prospects are better than those of solar energy.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang stressed that although the election results were not immediately clear, the new mainstream already appeared after Taiwan’s securities elections on Wednesday. This year’s new corona epidemic has completely changed people’s lives and product consumption. Aviation and tourism will take at least two years to recover. However, the long distance technology industry has benefited and has become a new favorite in the capital market.
On Wednesday, there were two stocks with long-distance trading opportunities to attack the rise and halt, and rewrite skyrocketing prices. One was Daiyu (1598-TW) for home fitness equipment and Dingxuan-KY (8499-TW) for Apple’s new MacBook supply chain. .
In the first wave of the epidemic this year, it was the spring of the northern hemisphere. Europeans and Americans could still exercise outdoors. As a result, the bikes were selling well in Europe, causing the huge price (9921-TW) to jump from 114 yuan to 334 yuan, an increase of 193%. But the second wave of the epidemic is about to enter winter, and the huge third quarter is still booming, but operations will decline from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year.
Golf Datian (8924-TW) rose from 29.2 yuan to 68.3 yuan, an increase of 134%. The share price hit a 13-year high, but the situation is similar. The third quarter is expected to be the peak for this year and the fourth quarter will decline. It is a selling point at this stage. Instead of buying some.
However, due to the cold winter of the second wave of epidemics in Europe and the United States, people are forced to stay at home, and it is impossible for them to be in remote video 24 hours a day to communicate with the company’s customers. . The rest of the time will be entertainment and fitness.
Under the epidemic this year, home fitness equipment was sold, mainly for the production of treadmills and steering wheels. However, this year’s popular Peleton in combination with online fitness courses has risen from US $ 17.7 to a high of US $ 139.75 on the US stock market, which is 6, 9 times faster. What a great business opportunity.
The various brands of the Taiwanese factory Daiyu are selling well, causing the share of revenue in the US in the first three quarters of this year to increase from 60% to 75% compared to the same period last year. . The second wave of the epidemic spread and closed public gyms and gymnasiums. People with physical needs can only stay at home. The move saw orders for Daiyu in hand rise three times compared to the same period last year. EPS in the first quarter of this year was only 0.01 yuan, and it grew to 1.78 yuan in the second quarter. In the announcement, EPS for August was 1.37 yuan. Yuan, there will be a force of 5 Yuan in the first half of next year.
Additionally, Apple will release a new MacBook on November 11. Ding Hyun-KY is the largest supplier of EMI anti-electromagnetic materials. The new MacBook is expected to be popular after launch, even more popular than the iPhone 12. The related MacBook supply chain also began to pay attention.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized, therefore, choosing back-end stocks to get back to basics should be the second mainstream in Apple’s MacBook and home entertainment and fitness supply chain.
Join Cai Mingzhang’s Fan Group For Free Now To Share More Information
Mr. Cai chooses LINE’s fan group of dark horse Cai Mingzhang
https://line.me/ti/p/@marbo666
Cai chooses the dark horse, Cai Mingzhang, free YOUTUBE audio and video channel
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHjkjx50-BTduhjwiwFA3nw
Mr. Cai chooses the Dark Horse Cai Mingzhang FB community
https://www.facebook.com/groups/marbo666/
Mr. Cai Chooses Dark Horse Cai Mingzhang Telegram Fan Group
https://t.me/marbo666
Individual values recommended by the company for analysis
No undue financial interest ratio Past performance does not guarantee future benefits
Investors must make independent judgments and prudential assessments and bear their own investment risks.
[ad_2]
