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The US presidential election may not have a result today (4). Because Trump questioned the electoral fraud, he would appeal to the Supreme Court to order the suspension of the vote count. After the news, the Dow Jones futures index fell 400 points, but the decline was immediately stopped. Regarding the outlook for the Taiwan stock market, the investment trust legal entity said that even if the results of the US presidential election are postponed, Taiwan shares will fluctuate in the short term, and the medium term. and long term can still be seen positively.
In the US presidential election, voting is being voted on today, and voting operations of the states are ongoing. Currently, 43 statements have been prepared. Republican Trump has garnered 213 electoral votes, which is behind Democrat Biden’s 238, but four swing states, including Pennsylvania, are sending him through the mail. Voting will be the key and the final result of the elections may be difficult to produce today. In addition, Trump challenged the electoral fraud and would appeal to the Supreme Court to order the suspension of the vote count. Following the news, the Dow Jones futures index on the US stock market fell sharply from red to black and plummeted 400 points.
Qunyi Oscar’s fund manager Du Xinpei said both Biden and Trump, candidates for the US presidential election, are predictable for the market. Unlike the 2016 election, the market is relatively unknown to Trump. The market’s ability to adapt to changes in the global environment is becoming faster and faster. Even if the results of the US presidential elections are postponed, Taiwan stocks can only fluctuate in the short term, and will continue to develop positively in the medium and long term. The stock selection strategy is based on the industry with clear trends in 2021. Select the best bargain hunters to add weight.
Although the results of the US presidential election cannot be confirmed today, no matter the delay of a few days, the candidate for the White House will finally be selected. Therefore, the Qunyi Investment Letter deduced the results of the US presidential elections and proposed investment directions.
Qunyi Investment Trust stated that if Trump is re-elected, existing policies will continue and it is possible that the expiration clause of the current 2025 tax cut plan could reduce the long-term tax burden on US companies. Also, since Trump came to power, industry stocks that have benefited from trends like beautification and deinoization have continued to be beneficial. Fostering America’s energy independence is also beneficial to the energy industry. In terms of green energy, although Trump supports petrochemicals, electric vehicles and new energy are long-term trends. There may be pressure in the short term, but the long term is still a promising direction.
If Biden is elected, because of his support for green energy, he may increase investment in green energy in the United States, which is beneficial to the new energy industry. And it is possible to cancel tariffs on some commodities, which is beneficial for consumer products that are heavily affected by tariffs. However, Biden hopes to cancel the corporate tax cuts implemented by Trump, which are estimated to reduce the profits of American companies by about 10% over 21 years. The policy of planning the spin-off of large technology companies is relatively unfavorable for the American stock market.
Du Xinpei further stated that no matter who is elected president of the United States, the outlook for the Taiwan stock market shows that the index presents a high-level consolidation with a high probability of fluctuations, and the prices of the shares of various groups ethnic groups will rotate alternately. Wu Yinliang, Qunyi Store Market Fund Manager, also said that Taiwan’s economic growth and prospects for various industries have investment opportunities that are trending upward. Growth is good, the market is still low-profit, and funds are still plentiful. The performance of the stock market can still be expected in the medium and long term.
In terms of investing in Taiwanese securities at this stage, security selection remains the best strategy, and technology securities remain the main investment axis. Du Xinpei suggested that it can be implemented in subsectors with clear medium to long-term trends, especially with the three characteristics of new products, new applications and new specifications. It is worth noting that the group includes semiconductors, 5G-related applications, high-end integrated circuits, Apple’s supply chain, electric vehicles, etc. In addition, the electronic supply chain sector driven by the trend of decentralization and de-beautification and stocks related to the concept of capital spending are also May be concerned. Other aspects, such as unlocking the actions of consumers, can also be observed in moderation.
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