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More than 94 million votes have been cast and the turnout rate in some states has exceeded the total turnout rate in the local area since 2016. In many other states, the majority of residents are expected to vote in person on the day of the elections.
Michael McDonald, associate professor at the University of Florida and director of the US Elections Project, estimates that a total of 160.2 million people will vote this year. It looked at how many voters in each state could still vote based on past election behavior, this year’s early voting data, and state regulations on how late a mail-in ballot can arrive at the counting point, and how it will be this number occurred.
In a press conference on November 1, he predicted that 67% of eligible voters will vote since Republican President William McKinley defeated Democrat William Jennings in 1900. ‧The highest voter turnout rate since William Jennings Bryan. That year, nearly 74% of Americans voted.
He said: “A strong sign is that the voter turnout rate will be higher than in 2016, because the voter turnout rate in some states has exceeded or is close to the 2016 voter turnout rate.”
The participation rate in Texas exceeded 8%, which exceeded the total participation rate in 2016; while the participation rate in Hawaii exceeded 11%; the current participation rate in Montana is approximately 99% in 2016; The current participation rate for Washington state is close to 98%; North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada also have participation rates of more than 90%.
To some extent, the alarming number of early voting may be offset by lower turnout on Election Day. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats told the Gallup Center (Gallup) in September that they had voted or planned to vote early. This figure is up from 44% in 2016. Democrats are often most concerned about the CCP virus epidemic. Their politicians and the media have declared that voting by mail is the best option.
However, among Republicans, opinion polls show the opposite trend. Only 28% said they had voted or planned to vote early, compared to 42% in the 2016 general elections. Republicans tend to be less concerned about the coronavirus, and the message they send is in line with this trend, that is, they are more concerned about the fairness of voting by mail, showing that Republicans will participate in the personal vote more than ever.
Recently, President Donald Trump (Trump) and his campaign team urged their supporters to vote early, but they have yet to vote in person. This data gives Republicans an advantage in voting early in person, but will also reduce the number of people who vote on Election Day.
There are still more than 31 million mailed ballots that have yet to be returned. These ballots are expected to be heavily skewed toward the Democratic Party. More than a third of the votes are in California. Democrats believe they will win there anyway. .
Editor in charge: Ye Ziwei #
