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In the last three days of the US presidential election, can President Trump lose to Democratic candidate Biden? According to the forecast published today by the “Complex Decision Analysis Center” at Fudan University in Shanghai, Biden’s probability of winning is between 89.6% and 92.4%, and Trump’s probability of reelection is between 7.1% and 9.6%, but the report emphasizes Trump still has a chance of being reelected.
According to distinguished Professor Tang Shiping, director of the “Complex Decision Analysis Center” at Fudan University in Shanghai, the final forecast for the 59th US presidential election was announced on November 1. The report uses the “ABM (Agent Based Modeling) model” to compute data for 6 US states. Comprehensive analysis of various industries (including agriculture, manufacturing, etc.), ethnicity variables (including various swing states), and the electoral college distribution in the United States predicts the “relative vote rate.”
The report uses “Republican Trump (Trump) + Pence (Mike Pence)” and “Democrat Biden (Joe Biden) + He Jinli (Kamala Harris, translation of Lu: Harris)” two sets of candidates to make predictions, 6 Great States ` `Michigan ‘,` `Pennsylvania’ ‘,` ʻOhio’ ‘, `ʻIndiana’ ‘,` `West Virginia’ ‘Virginia)” and the results of the analyzes for “Missouri” are presented as follows:
1. Michigan
Both sets of prediction models predict that Biden Harris will win the Michigan election, with an average of 54.54% or 55.57% of the vote. The first group of models (group A models) predicts that Biden and Harris will have a relative vote rate of 53.18% (lowest value) to 55.91% (highest value). The second group of models (group B models) predicts that Biden and Harris will have a relative vote rate of 54.18% (lowest value) to 56.95% (highest value).
2. Ohio
Both sets of prediction models predict that Trump Pence will win the Ohio election, averaging 50.75% or 50.89% of the vote. The first group of models (group A models) predicts that Trump and Pence will have a relative vote rate of 49.52% (lowest value) to 51.98% (highest value). The second group of models (group B models) predicts that the relative vote rate for Trump and Pence is between 49.66% (lowest value) and 52.12% (highest value).
3. Pennsylvania
Both sets of prediction models predict that Biden Harris will win the Pennsylvania election, averaging 52.04% or 52.44% of the vote. The first group of models (group A models) predicts that Biden and Harris will have a relative vote rate of 50.74% (lowest value) to 53.34% (highest value). The second group of models (group B models) predicts that Biden and Harris will have a relative vote rate of 51.13% (lowest value) to 53.75% (highest value).
4. Indiana
Both sets of prediction models predict that Trump Pence will win the Indiana election, averaging 51.65% or 53.64% of the vote. The first group of models (group A models) predict that the relative vote rate for Trump and Pence is between 50.44% (lowest value) and 52.85% (highest value). The second group of models (group B model) predicts that the relative vote rate for Trump and Pence is between 52.48% (lowest value) and 54.80% (highest value).
5. West Virginia
West Virginia, due to the relatively high degree of ethnic homogeneity in the state, only one set of models (group A models) can be derived from this analogy. The model predicts that Trump and Pence will win the election in West Virginia, with an average of 61.69% of the vote. The model (group A model) predicts that the relative vote rate for Trump and Pence is between 60.73% (lowest value) and 62.65% (highest value).
6. Missouri
Both sets of prediction models predict that Trump Pence will win the Missouri election, averaging 55.60% or 55.39% of the vote. The first group of models (group A models) predicts that Trump and Pence will have a relative vote rate of 54.49% (lowest value) to 56.71% (highest value). The second group of models (group B models) predicts that the relative vote rate for Trump and Pence is between 54.27% (lowest value) and 56.50% (highest value).
The report finally emphasized that in addition to the six states mentioned above, the survey data was also used for predictions for other states in the United States, using the “Monte Carlo method of analogy” to simulate the probability that each candidate I win. The overall result found that the odds of Democrat Biden-Harris (biden) winning the election ranged from 89.6% to 92.4% (average of 91.1%). In contrast, Donner. Trump’s odds of winning are between 7.1% and 9.6% (8.3% average). But this does not mean that the probability of his re-election is zero.
Finally, it is worth noting that the research team accurately predicted the “2016 Taiwan Presidential Elections”, the “2018 West Virginia and Missouri Senate Midterm Elections” and the “2020 Taiwan Presidential Elections.” And this year’s Taiwan general election forecast and voting results, the proportion is only less than 1%. The center is committed to the creative use of cutting-edge social science research methods to study major issues in China (Mainland) and global development.
In response, a Taiwanese netizen left a message saying: “The US presidential election is actually an electoral model with high uncertainty, but the prediction is really terrifying.”
(Zhongshi News Network)
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