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Economist Wu Jialong pointed out that the polls have limitations. According to other indicators, Trump has a good chance of being re-elected Image: Inverted from Wu Jialong’s Facebook
The US presidential elections will take place next week. Many polls in the United States have shown that Democratic candidate Biden has a higher approval rating than Trump. In this regard, the general economist Wu Jialong has a different opinion. He believes the polls are technically limited. Polls published by the media are all “processed”. It also looks at the issues of voters, newly registered voters, and financial markets. Analysis of the three main aspects of the reaction indicated that the election remains very optimistic that Trump can be re-elected without problems.
The accuracy of the polls for the US presidential elections has been disputed. In the 2016 election, many polls indicated that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump, but the result was a big comeback and Trump was ultimately elected president of the United States. Wu Jialong interprets the American polls. He pointed out that the surveys have technical limitations, forcing survey experts to try to adjust the weights and give a weighted average survey. “So, the surveys published in the media, I say is” Poll processed _ “”.
Wu Jialong explained that polls usually have four problems. The first is the sampling error, that is, the sample drawn is not sufficient to represent the population; the second is the hidden voters who are not willing to tell the truth to the voting agency; and the third is voting. Although some people accept polls, they may not actually vote. The fourth is the rejection rate, which is the percentage of people who refused to accept interviews after 100 survey calls were made. Wu Jialong said that many voters do not want to take the time to answer survey questions, this percentage is usually very high, starting from 10%, sometimes directly exceeding 20% or even exceeding 40%.
Wu Jialong said that when Trump voters receive a call from a voting agency, they generally drop the phone and refuse to answer _. So it’s reasonable to estimate that Biden’s lead in the polls should be reduced by at least 10% _.
In addition to the polls, he also pointed to other indicators to predict election results in the program. According to historical data, the parties and candidates with the highest number of new registered voters will win elections almost without exception. In recent months, especially in swing states, Trump has been way ahead on this indicator.
Professor Zhang Jinhua of the National Taiwan University News Bureau also told The Epoch Times that the leftist stance of the mainstream American media is serious, and the political stance is more pro-democratic, and they have negative reports on Trump. Therefore, if the surveys published by the media are credible, it is still necessary. People judge for themselves.
The US presidential elections will take place next week. Many polls in the United States have shown that Democratic candidate Biden has a higher approval rating than Trump.
In this regard, the general economist Wu Jialong has a different opinion. He believes the polls are technically limited. The polls published by the media are all “processed”. It also looks at the issues of voters, newly registered voters, and financial markets. Analysis of the three main aspects of the reaction indicated that the election remains very optimistic that Trump can be re-elected without problems.
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