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“Establishing diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan” has always been considered a bogus affair, but as international backlash against the CCP grows more intense, this letter may become Trump’s latest “October surprise.” Photo: Image by Dazhi / Associated Press (data photo)
“Establishing diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan” has always been considered a bogus topic, but as the international backlash against the CCP grows more intense, this letter may become Trump’s final “October surprise.” Kai He, Professor of International Relations at Griffith University in Australia, and Huiyun Feng, a chartered lecturer on international relations, contributed to the Hong Kong media’s “South China Morning Post,” saying that if Trump’s polls continue in decline, it will remain miserable after the epidemic. The election will force him to risk “recognizing Taiwan” diplomatically, making it the most expensive “October surprise”.
Looking back on recent major diplomatic moves by various countries against China, the United States sent two top-ranking officials to Taiwan more than 40 years after the breakdown of diplomatic relations, and asked the UN ambassador to publicly express his support for the accession of Taiwan two days before the National Day of the Communist Party of China. The European Union rarely followed the US position after Trump turned one-sided. He did not agree with the Chinese communist system and expressed concern about the persecution of human rights. He also adopted a coherent ideology and toughness in the proxy wars in East Asia. s method.
The presentation said that relations between the United States and Taiwan have heated up in recent months. First, US Secretary of Health Alex Michael Azar II arrived in Taiwan on August 10, becoming the highest-ranking US official in Taiwan for more than 40 years. Then, in mid-September, Washington sent another high-ranking official, Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy and Environmental Affairs, Keith Krach (Keith Krach), to attend former President Lee’s memorial service. Two days before the National Day of the Communist Party of China on October 1, the United States ambassador to the United Nations expressed support for Taiwan’s membership in the United Nations, saying that Taipei’s non-participation was “misleading the world. “.
The presentation also notes that the United States indirectly supports Taiwan in response to the Taiwan Strait crisis. The Trump administration has proposed 7 large-scale arms sales plans to Taiwan, including long-range missiles, which are clearly intended to strengthen Taiwan’s defense against the Chinese communists. Trump has become the most pro-Taiwan American president in history. His image of “tough on China” and “hitting China” has become a sign and an asset. The Democratic Party must follow through and become a useful policy to win the support of voters before the elections.
However, the communication also stated that this waving “Taiwan card” is extremely risky. Under normal circumstances, rational leaders may tend to adopt a “risk reduction policy” because they do not want to lose what they have already acquired, such as China’s huge market. But if leaders face “a powerful loss that is none of them,” they can make a riskier decision, hoping to at least maintain their political career.
In particular, Trump’s recent tax record was exposed, and the disastrous outcome of the first presidential debate. He did not attend the second debate and was even eager to have a personal show party. You can see that he doesn’t have many chips to lose. Academics and history have shown that America’s “wartime president” is more likely to win reelection. Risking diplomacy to “recognize Taiwan” may see him don the “wartime president” shirt and get more votes than votes of sympathy. source.
The presentation also said, “If this happens in the Taiwan Strait, it will be a disaster not only for the region but also for the entire world. The CCP will have to fight to maintain the legitimacy of its regime.” “Monthly Surprise” can be a military conflict or even a nuclear disaster.
The academics are also calling on Taiwan. In view of the growing tension between the two sides of the strait, resisting the temptation of the United States is the top priority. For Taiwanese leaders, it may be wise to proactively show Washington what they want and, more importantly, what they don’t want. What do you want”.
“Establishing diplomatic relations between the United States and Taiwan” has always been considered a bogus topic, but as the international backlash against the CCP becomes increasingly intense, this letter may become the latest “October surprise” of Trump.
Kai He, Professor of International Relations at Griffith University in Australia, and Huiyun Feng, a chartered lecturer on international relations, contributed to the Hong Kong media’s “South China Morning Post,” saying that if Trump’s polls continue in decline, it will remain miserable after the epidemic. The election will force him to risk “recognizing Taiwan” diplomatically, making it the most expensive “October surprise”.
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