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Reporter Dai Yuxiang / Taipei Report
Benefited from the US government sanctions against SMIC, the UMC smelter (2303) is expected to benefit from the transfer order effect, yesterday (28) it attacked the upper limit and today (29) it has continued to strengthen. Rushing to 29.3 yuan, a 16-year record for the stock price, the total trading volume exploded into a huge 543,367, but then the stock price began to fall and eventually closed flat. In response to this, senior analyst Cai Mingzhang said: “Be careful that the devil is hidden in the details.”
▲ CMU (2303) rushed to 29.3 yuan shortly after the market opened today (29), setting a 16-year record, and total transaction volume exploded to a whopping 543,367. (Image / Obtained from UMC Official Website)
Tsai Mingzhang, director of Wanbao Investment Consulting, said the main reason UMC’s share price hit a 16-year high is that SMIC was sanctioned by the United States and Taiwan Semiconductor has a chance to win the transfer order. . , I discovered that things are not so simple. “
Cai Mingzhang said that SMIC’s 40nm or higher process accounts for 90% of its revenue. It benefits from long-distance communications and can be used in laptop power supplies and controller ICs. Therefore, once SMIC is approved, it will benefit the 8-inch cast iron UMC. , There will be an excuse to raise the price. In addition, SMIC is also OEM of Zhaoyi Innovation, the third largest NOR flash factory in the world, so the market thinks about the transfer to Winbond and Macronix, so Winbond and Macronix were also sought by investors yesterday. .
However, Cai Mingzhang believes that there are still variables. The most important thing is that the US stock market on the 28th seems to have no response. It is clear that the US government sanctions the SMIC should be an international event, but SMIC puts a large part of Qualcomm (Qualcomm) for the power management ICs. As SMIC’s second-largest client accounted for 13% of its revenue, it appears to have been unaffected by the news, but its share price was up 3.47%. Lam Research is the largest US supplier to SMIC, contributing 1.1% of Colin’s revenue, but its share price was also up 1.92% on the 28th.
The reaction from US actions seems to reveal a sign that Trump’s force to crack down on SMIC may not be as comprehensive as Huawei’s. I’m afraid even the hit to the SMIC is due to Trump’s electoral considerations, but it can’t really affect American business. So there should be a door left, after all, SMIC’s international influence is not as good as Huawei’s.
▲ Trump’s force to attack SMIC may not be as comprehensive as the attack on Huawei. (Image / Obtained from SMIC official website)
From the perspective of mainland China and Hong Kong stocks, Cai Mingzhang said that although Zhaoyi Innovation was hit by SMIC, although it fell 2% yesterday, it rebounded 1% today. In addition, Hua Hong Semiconductor, which is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, has not only been unaffected, but has risen more than 9% today. Based on this performance, the Chinese government is likely ready to “fully support Hua Hong Semiconductor” once SMIC is sanctioned by the United States. Therefore, today, including UMC, Winbond and Macronix, they cannot continue the momentum of yesterday’s increase. I am afraid that the case of SMIC sanctions and other variables remain to be seen if Taiwanese manufacturers can smoothly comply with transfer orders.
