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The subject of today’s report is “The second wave of the epidemic is coming. What is a life preserver?”
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that the major US stock indices have recently fallen below the quarterly line. The Dow Jones Index bottomed at 18,213 points in March and was on the quarterly line in May. In September, it peaked at 29,199 points, an increase of 60%. Stark bottomed out at 6,631 points in March, hit the seasonal line in early April and continued to rewrite all-time high prices. The September peak reached 12,074 points, a total increase of 82%.
Taiwanese stocks kept pace with the US stock market, bottoming out at 8,523 points in March and returning to the quarterly line at the end of April. In July, they peaked at 13,031 points, which rose by 53%. The highs for Taiwanese stocks appeared before the US stock market, which was related to the Huawei ban. . However, Taiwan stocks are now showing a decline in high-end volume. The maximum one-day volume used to be as high as 340 billion yuan, and now it has been cut in half.
When autumn came, the second wave of epidemics struck in Europe and America. There has been a second wave in the UK. The second wave in France lasted half a month and the second wave in Spain lasted more than half a month. British Prime Minister Johnson and Johnson announced on September 22 that the second wave of epidemic prevention measures could be implemented for half a year. Until next spring.
The warning sign of a new coronary pneumonia in the UK in June fell from level 4 to level 3. Unexpectedly, three months later, it rose from level 3 to level 4. Johnson & Johnson announced two important points that have a profound impact in the life of the British. Restaurants and bars are at 10 pm After closing, the British will have no nightlife, severely damaging the catering and entertainment industries. Additionally, all corporate employees are encouraged to work from home, allowing long-distance business opportunities to continue. Trump considered reelection and declared that he would not follow up, and the UK blocked him once again.
However, 200,000 people in the United States have died of new crown pneumonia, more than the total number of American soldiers killed in World War I and the Vietnam War. The US population makes up 4% of the world’s population, but the death toll from New Crown pneumonia accounts for 21% of the world. As the death toll rises, US equities bear the rise More corrections will increase the pressure, but the crisis is the turning point and the long-distance business opportunity is the biggest turning point.
According to data from the US Department of Labor, 24.3% of employees in August were remote jobs caused by the pandemic. That is, one in four people are remote jobs. Those who work remotely tend to have high incomes 37.% Can work from home accounting for 46% of all wages.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that Taiwan’s own epidemic situation is under control and that the probability of the second wave of epidemics is small, but exports are affected by Europe and the United States and are concerned about the second wave of epidemics. On Wednesday, container shipping Evergreen Sea (2603-TW) and Yang Ming (2609-TW) suffered heavy losses, hitting a retracement low, causing Taiwan stocks to test quarterly support. The second wave of the epidemic, if the economy crashes again, will reduce the demand for crude oil. On Wednesday, plastic stocks will be completely reduced and affect cars and components. However, as long as China controls foreign imports, there should be no second wave risk. Sanlu’s actions are relatively defensive.
If there is no risk of a second epidemic in China, and stocks for domestic consumption in China during the long November holidays, there will be a daily limit of 11 levels for the depository receipt pool from the Dominican Republic on Wednesday. In the first wave of the epidemic, everyone grabbed masks and ear thermometers. Later, biotech stocks soared. Evergrande mask stock (1325-TW) hit a low of 34 yuan in March to a high of 216 yuan in June, a five-fold increase, but 6 Since January, the free trade of masks was opened in China, which indicates that supply and demand have gradually balanced. Evergrande’s revenue in June was 485 million yuan, a record high, and it has been unable to set a new high for two consecutive months. The current price of the stock has fallen to the mid-year line and has corrected from the highest point. 36%.
Biotech stocks Tianguo Ikki took over, and Heyi (4743-TW) soared from 19.4 yuan to 476.5 yuan, a 23-fold increase. However, from the highest point, it has recovered about 30%. Even if the second wave of epidemics resumes, the Stocks theme will not replicate the previous wave of upward patterns, because the chips are already messy and there are no retail investors cutting leeks.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized, what exactly is the demand for the second wave of the epidemic? US stock market e-commerce Amazon surged 5% on Wednesday If the shopping season from Thanksgiving to Christmas meets a second wave of epidemics, e-commerce online will become a big winner .
In addition, Nike’s financial report was brilliant, with a 13% increase outside of business hours. Nike’s performance growth also came from e-commerce. Long distance video zoom has exploded by 5% and has rewritten historically new prices through the roof. This year, it has increased 6 times. Europeans and Americans have postponed their work from home. They were originally expected to return to their offices in November. However, after the second wave of the epidemic, it will be postponed until April next year, and the demand for remote business opportunities ushered in another wave of spikes.
People stay home longer and will re-enter winter. The demand for affordable housing and indoor entertainment has risen sharply, which is stronger than the first wave. The first wave of the epidemic was in spring and summer. Europeans and Americans can still get out. Walking the dog, riding a bike, etc., but in the winter of the second wave of the epidemic, they will stay at home.
At present, we see that there are some products that have changed hands. The original price of the new Nvidia 3080 graphics card was $ 699. After the change, it can be sold for $ 5,000, which is 6 times the profit. Sony PlayStation 5 (PS5) is 10 times bigger in Japan and doubled in Europe. Microsoft Xbox Series X will sell out as soon as it is released.
Graphics card Leadtek (2465-TW), Cool Cooling (3017-TW), Jianzhun (2421-TW), Jiance (3653-TW), the reason for the relative strength on Wednesday is this, the graphics card game console is the second wave The life saver of the epidemic, the leading indicator of the unit software of the IPO game development platform increased by 16% on Tuesday, driving the rise of US gaming esports stocks. Taiwan shares are expected to fall back from the quarterly line. If sustained, the second wave of epidemics Index shares of the target legal entity operation Gigabyte (2376-TW), MSI (2377-TW), Thermaltake (3540-TW), ASRock (3515-TW) will perform.
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