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Political Center / Reported by Lin Qihua
In recent days, the People’s Liberation Army has frequently sent co-planes to disrupt Taiwan, especially during the visit to Taiwan by the US Under Secretary of the State Department, Colac, and the former Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshiro Mori. The Ministry of National Defense has also severely urged China “not to become rioters. The tension between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait has also drawn international attention to whether the conflict will break out. Seth Cropsey, former undersecretary of the Navy and director of the Sea Power Center of the “Hudson Institute” in Washington, DCCapitol hillThe best time for Beijing to attack Taiwan is expected to be the week of November 3.
▲ Common phones have scrambled channels frequently in recent days. (Photo / provided by the Ministry of National Defense)
Seth Cropsey, director of the US Marine Energy Center at the Hudson Institute, is considered a pro-Taiwan person. Our Vice President Lai Qingde also met with him during his visit to the United States in February this year. Last month, President Tsai Ing-wen was in Kazakhstan. Kropsch also participated in the speech at the videoconference hosted by the Derson Institute. Recently, he wrote an article to analyze that Taiwan has intensively tested new types of artillery and missiles, but that China has sent military aircraft to disrupt Taiwan at the same time, including the SU-30. The SU-30 is one of the most combative fighters in China, far superior to Taiwan. The F-16.
Kropsch noted that in the past year, joint jets have frequently harassed Taiwan, sending aircraft carriers across the Miyako Strait and conducting large-scale military exercises, which are not just political signals, but preparations for aggression against Taiwan. He said that, in fact, every act of disruption from China to Taiwan is a test of the response of Taiwan and the United States, as well as a test of the Chinese military’s combat ability.
According to Kropsch’s analysis, there is a clear disparity between the military strength of China and Taiwan, but China will not succeed in a short time as it wishes, because China must fully occupy Taiwan, but Taiwan’s strong reserve force plus its geographical advantage Unless there is a riot on the island. Furthermore, once the war in the Taiwan Strait begins, China will face the situation of being “isolated”. In addition to the US military, Japan, Australia, and even the Philippines can join the war. After the war spreads, South Korea, Vietnam, and India can join in as well. This will lengthen the time of the war, and the United States will also impose an economic blockade on China, which does not benefit China. Therefore, based on the above, Kropsch noted that China’s approach should be a swift fight, isolate its coastline through long-range missiles and layered defenses gradually, and increase the cost of American intervention.
▲ Kropsch noted that the best time for Beijing to attack Taiwan is November 3 this week. (Combined image / data photo)
In addition, Kropsch also pointed out that there is currently a situation in the United States, that is, as the general elections heat up, the sense of hostility between the American parties has become increasingly intense, especially during the electoral period, an important time. to determine the head of state. The possibility of the United States becoming involved in international conflicts is much lower, so for Beijing, the week of November 3 may be the best time to strike.
