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The subject of today’s report is “Who should buy and sell Taiwan shares in the US stock market crash?”
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that US stocks have entered an uncomfortable September. Since the September peak, the Dow Jones Index has fallen 6% and the Nasdaq technology stocks have fallen 10%. It fell 12%. The high valuation of US tech stocks triggered this wave of callbacks. From the perspective of the high link between Taiwan electronics stocks and US tech stocks, watch out for corrections that have turned into pullbacks.
If Nasdaq satisfies the 20% drop from the all-time high, it will trigger the next wave of stock market declines in Taiwan stocks, but as of now, this major crisis has not been seen, so the stocks of Taiwan on Wednesday withdrew one hundred points. The lower shadow line shows resistance to the decline, but it is still recommended to keep Baotai profitable in September. At least half of the profitable share holdings in the portfolio will stop and some of the cash will be recovered.
Why are US tech stocks so volatile? SoftBank’s core business is losing money and it strives for non-industrial profits. In August, it bought $ 4 billion of US stock. Leaders in call options, including Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, etc. This is a dangerous gamble that has increased speculation in US stocks and increased market volatility.
This wave of falling tech stocks is not yet a reversal point for US stocks, but it has added uncertainties to the market. The market has risen and fallen. On Tuesday, the biggest drop in US stocks was Tesla, which fell 21%, the biggest one-day drop in history. But before the spin-off, the share price soared more than 4 times this year.
Musk doesn’t charge Tesla’s salary, but the free one is the most expensive. You have reached a remuneration agreement with the board of directors. It is divided into 12 stages. At each stage, Tesla’s goal of continued growth in market value is achieved. You can get 50 billion dollars in stock options and sell the shares, you will become the richest man in the world.
However, the major shareholders sold in rallies and issued US $ 5 billion in new shares after the spin-off, which is like printing shares for banknotes. After the spin-off, the price fell, which attracted retail investors, but fell from $ 502 to $ 330. The US dollar fell 34% at once, but the challenge from Tesla is over. Bill Gates disagreed with electric trucks. Competitor General Motors took a stake in Nikola. Nikola’s shares soared 40% on Tuesday. The Tesla supply chain of Taiwan shares One is that Tesla’s revenue is not high, and the other is that orders are transferred to the red supply chain, but the share price must be careful.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang stressed that Apple’s overall shares may fall into declines. It is determined that on September 15, Apple will launch new products such as iPhone 12, MacBook, iPad, Apple Watch. The market focus is on the iPhone 12, but currently 5G Compared to the 4G specifications, the actual function difference is limited. If 4G models are ideally priced and the CP value is higher, it can displace the demand for 5G models. Therefore, research and judgment of the iPhone supply chain will not be easy to improve. Largan (3008-TW) and Hon Hai (2317-TW) this year’s stock price is still negative.
The MacBook series uses Apple’s own chips and has a better cost structure, posing a threat to the traditional architecture alliance of Windows and Intel. Next year’s MacBook momentum will increase, increasing Apple’s global computer market share from the current 6% to 9%, the biggest beneficiary is Quanta (2382-TW), the MacBook foundry. Also, it’s worth noting that on Wednesday, Acer (2353-TW) benefited from Chromebooks and hit a high point in the band. This is in the midst of the US stock market crash, large electronic stocks led the record, indicating that the market will focus on laptops.
MacBook keyboards have changed the scissor legs, Jingyuan (2387-TW), Kejia-KY (5215-TW), the EPS for the third quarter and the whole year has been revised to 5.5 yuan and 12 yuan, which is a multiple of last year’s growth. The group with the greatest growth potential. The devil is hidden in the details. On Tuesday, technology stocks in the US stock market generally tumbled, but the laptop duo, HP, broke the trend, rose 2% and Dell fell just 0.7%.
Also, looking at the Taiwan stock market on Wednesday, the IC design group is divided into two camps, long and short. All laptop related and long distance business opportunities include Elan (2458-TW), Siewei (6231-TW), Yuanyuan Xiang (3227-TW), Yutai (6679-TW) and Huaxun (6237-TW) they turned red. Worldchip-KY (3661-TW), Jinlike (3228-TW) and Novatek (3034-TW) related to mainland semiconductors still fell sharply.
Then, to win the election, Trump did not hesitate to kill a thousand enemies and hurt himself eight hundred. The Trump administration continued to make tough moves on Huawei and SMIC, but hurt American semiconductor equipment factories. On Tuesday he applied materials, science and technology. Kelei’s Lin R&D and KLA plummeted 9%. Applied Materials is down 20% from its high of $ 69.9. You have entered the conditions for a technical reversal. Of course, we should also pay attention to some semiconductor equipment factories in Taiwan stocks. Due to orders and revenue from mainland manufacturers, these stocks should be avoided in the near future.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that in August, Taiwan’s exports reached a record 31.1 billion US dollars, mainly from two parts of the force. One is Huawei storage, but this is short and long. In addition, there are long-distance business opportunities. At the end of the year, the orders are complete. This is the focus of our real concern.
The British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, one of the world’s leading vaccines, entered phase III clinical trials and was suddenly stopped due to safety concerns. Pfizer and 9 other major pharmaceutical companies in Europe and the United States jointly declared Tuesday that they will not provide the new crown vaccine to the government until sufficient test data is obtained. This will have a negative impact on Trump’s re-election, but it also means that progress on the development of the vaccine is lagging. If so, long-distance business opportunities have a chance to continue through the end of the year.
Judging by the Taipei stock market on Wednesday, the heat dissipation power: KY (6591-TW), Anli-KY (5223-TW), Xupin (3325-TW), Qiaowei power supply (3078-TW ), Weixun (3032-TW) and Haiyundian (6203-TW) are the first to catch on, and you may know that these groups related to long-distance business opportunities have obvious buy orders in the jumps. Qiaowei and Weixun benefited from working and teaching at home DIY, entertainment and computer DIY, production capacity increased in response to order demand, the annual EPS was revised down to 4-5 yuan, an increase of at least 60% compared to last year. On Wednesday, Qiaowei set a new record in the band. This is in NB Computing components took the lead in hitting highs and also pointed the buying direction.
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