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Political Center / Comprehensive Report
Global tension! Wuhan pneumonia (COVID-19, New Crown pneumonia) has seriously affected the international economy. In recent months, the financial stock market and oil prices have continued to fluctuate. “The most sensitive fundamentals,” and said the epidemic has continued to burn. Economists are very much like “blind men who touch elephants.” Xie Jinhe revealed that the central indicator is the price of oil. Xie Jinhe also said that when economic experts look at oil prices, the most pessimistic sees $ 9, reminding him of the 2007 financial tsunami!
▲ There are many variables of martial lung! The pessimistic price of oil is only $ 9 … Xie Jinhe: Thinking about the financial tsunami (photo / data photo)
Xie Jinhe said in a PO article on Facebook on 18 that this epidemic originated in Wuhan, China, has continued to burn. What will happen to the global economy in the future? Economists around the world are like a blind man. They all have different points of view and angles. In fact, the central indicator is oil prices. Xie Jinhe said that in March and April, the global closure of the city and the closure of the country will certainly not have good economic data; perhaps by reading the news reports, you can see a lot of interesting news. For example, when the plane at Taoyuan Airport is on the ground, the airport staff will go out to catch the birds, because the birds build a nest near the plane’s engine. In these 2 days, the cases in Taiwan were diagnosed with zero, and the “ZERO” light was shot by the Yuanshan Hotel. This is a great idea, but on the other hand, you can also see that the guests of the Yuanshan Hotel can be very few.
▲ There are many variables of martial lung! The pessimistic price of oil is only $ 9 … Xie Jinhe: Thinking about the financial tsunami (photo / data photo)
Xie Jinhe noted that last week, Hong Kong announced the airport’s operating figures. In March, only 576,000 passengers arrived in Hong Kong, a 91% decrease from the same period last year. The number of planes dispatched was 12,000, a decrease of 67%. Cargo volume was 378,000 metric tons, compared to the same period last year. 12.4% reduction. Xie Jinhe said that these three numbers are really very interesting, and also represents that the epidemic has severely affected the flow of people around the world. The plane is on the ground, the cruise ship stops, and there are no tourist attractions, but cargo logistics are less affected. This can be seen by the fact that Amazon’s stock price has frequently reached record levels. Xie Jinhe couldn’t help but say Taiwan’s passenger air transport is miserable, but air transport contractors such as China-Philippine Bank, Taiwan Hua and Jiexun have increased their revenues.
Xie Jinhe also mentioned that the global stock market rebounded a lot under the leadership of the US stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Index recovered more than 6,000 points, and Taiwan stocks also recovered more than 2,200 points. The stock market will continue to rise and will definitely face the test of bad fundamentals. For example, China’s first quarter GDP was a negative fear of 6.8%. China took the lead in closing the city, and then the biggest pressure in Europe and the United States was in March and April. The strength of global economic activity will appear in oil prices. On the 17th, Brent crude from the North Sea stabilized. Instead, WTI, which represents the United States, once plummeted to $ 17.32. Oil prices continued to fall, and the bottom of the economic recession was unknown.
▲ There are many variables of martial lung! The pessimistic price of oil is only $ 9 … Xie Jinhe: Thinking about the financial tsunami (photo / data photo)
Xie Jinhe also said that economic experts are now analyzing oil prices, and some of the most pessimistic people see $ 9, reminding him of Dr. Doom McGuard’s speech to Taipei before the financial tsunami in 2007. He definitely emphasized that a A barrel of oil prices rose to $ 300, and the price of oil fell to $ 32 a year later. Commodity expert Jim. Rogers looked at $ 200, and the highest was only $ 147.
Xie Jinhe emphasized that the pneumonia epidemic has frozen the world. Currently, there are three main forces in oil prices: the cost of oil shale oil production in the United States is about 45 to 55 US dollars, Russia is about 20 US dollars and Saudi Arabia is only about 2 to 3 US dollars. The cost structure of these three main forces varies greatly and there are many future variables.
▲ There are many variables of martial lung! The pessimistic price of oil is only $ 9 … Xie Jinhe: Thinking about the financial tsunami (Photo / Facebook)
