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With Donald Trump in the White House, Turkey has had more leeway at home and in the region. With the change in power, many Kurds hope for a US policy that will force Erdogan to adopt a more conciliatory line.
Will Joe Biden take a tougher stance towards Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey? It shows after the change of power in the United States in January. The image is from a meeting between the two men in 2016, when Biden was vice president.
The phone lines between Ankara and Washington DC have been hot for the past four years. The relationship between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Donald Trump has gone up and down, but overall it has been good when their interests overlap. The president of the United States is largely at the forefront of Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian regional activities and, in many places, aggressive foreign policy.
In this context, it is perhaps not surprising that Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential election was met first by Erdogan’s silence. After a while, however, he expressed his congratulations and hopes for closer relations between the two NATO countries.
But it is too early to say what relations between the United States and Turkey will be like during Biden, especially in a post-pandemic world, says journalist and author Cengiz Candar in a seminar.
Internationally, Erdogan is on the offensive and is using military force to expand his influence. Ankara’s regional superpower ambitions could create tensions between the United States and Turkey, according to Candar.
– The Biden government will face an active Turkey that acts aggressively from the South Caucasus to North Africa. And Turkey has become so trusting with the help of Russia.
If Erdogan has hesitated about the power shift, Kurds in the Middle East are expressing optimism. Many are hoping for a more pro-Kurdish US president, which may explain the recent frequent sharing of a 2002 video. In it, then-Senator Biden makes it clear to the Iraqi Kurdish parliament that “the mountains are not his only friends.” proverbs about the Kurdish history of treason.
Biden has also said that he is ashamed of Trump’s decision to leave America’s Kurdish allies in the lurch by withdrawing soldiers from northeastern Syria, where Turkey launched an offensive. Erdogan’s actions will cost him dear, according to Biden, but how the rhetoric will be reflected in practical politics remains to be seen.
In Turkey, representatives of the HDP and civil society have said they hope that Biden will follow a line that leads to a more conciliatory attitude towards the Kurds. The pro-Kurdish party has become the focus of the government’s campaign against the opposition.
Hundreds of party members have been jailed, accused of terrorism for alleged links with the PKK guerrillas. But the government is also taking a hard line with civil society.
– The situation is negative for the entire opposition and unsustainable both for Turkey and for the region as a whole, says Helin Sahin, expert on Turkey at the Palme Center.
– But the support of the HDP among the people continues to hover around ten percent, despite the oppression, the arrests and the fact that, in principle, they are incapable of doing politics at home.
Sahin describes a Turkey that is constantly pushing the boundaries, not only on domestic policy points, but also because the government and its allies have high cross-border ambitions. And as they do not meet any resistance, they continue forward without brake.
– Trump has greatly facilitated Turkey’s actions at home and in the region. The EU is bound by the migration agreement, he says.
– With Biden, Erdogan may be forced to make changes in his foreign policy. It will be interesting to see how the United States chooses to act in the Middle East, Biden already has good relations with the KRG in Iraq and is also expected to support the Kurds in Syria. The Kurds that I have contact with in Turkey feel desperate, but they hope for a long-term change.
Negotiations to end the conflict between Ankara and the PKK have long since collapsed. But the United States could take the initiative to resume peace talks, Sahin said.
– The situation is untenable, there must be a change, he says.
– Unfortunately, Turkey is not interested in dialogue. They have signed several international conventions, but they do not follow them and the EU does nothing. Mandatory action is needed and I believe the United States has that power in Turkey.
Kurds in Turkey
More Kurds live in Turkey than in any other country, probably at least 15 million.
The Republic of Turkey was founded in 1923. From then on, a harsh policy of assimilation began, which continued for the rest of the 20th century. The government opposed, above all, the Kurdish language.
For a long time it was not even allowed to publicly mention that there was an ethnic group in Turkey called Kurds.
In 1991, he was allowed to publish newspapers and books in Kurdish. However, many Kurdish writings were censored or banned, citing laws against separatist propaganda.
In 1999, Turkey was recognized as a candidate country for EU membership. However, the EU made it clear that increasing the rights of the Kurds was a requirement.
In 1984-1999, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, waged an armed struggle against the Turkish state. In the southeast, both the military and the PKK were tough on civilians. 42,000 people died in the war, including 7,000 Turkish soldiers.
Then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced in 2009 that his government wanted to engage in dialogue with the Kurds. But the initiative failed. In recent years, state pressure on the Kurds has intensified.
Source: Landguiden / UI
