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1. Brexit is not over
It is true that the UK formally left the EU on January 31 this year. But aside from the fact that British MEPs and officials went home from Brussels and Brexiters had a big party, nothing changed in principle. This is because divorce does not really become a reality until January 1 of the next year. Only then will EU laws and regulations cease to apply in the UK. The idea has been that the UK would spend 2020 negotiating a new free trade agreement with the EU. It has been more complicated than previously thought, especially since the main negotiators of the EU and the United Kingdom fell ill with covid-19 and the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, was on the verge of dying of the same disease. Therefore, many thought that Boris Johnson would ask for more time to negotiate, but he did not. For the British government, it is important that Brexit becomes a reality on January 1.
Despite everything else that happened in 2020.
Brian Cunningham, a seafood fisherman who runs a company with seven boats and a dozen employees in Kilkeel, Northern Ireland.
Photo: Nicklas Thegerström
2. Business negotiations go wrong
There is still no free trade agreement between the UK and the EU. The parties continue to argue over what to do with access to British waters for fishing, which is a very sensitive issue. Furthermore, there is no consensus on how much the UK should be allowed to differentiate itself from the EU in terms of environmental standards and labor law, and no less important is the infected question of how much aid the UK should be allowed to provide to its own. national companies without losing access to the EU single market. If these problems are not resolved in the coming weeks, Britain will leave the EU on New Year’s Eve, with very unclear consequences. No one has left a trading block overnight like that before.
A non-contractual Brexit would hurt the UK economy
A non-contractual Brexit on January 1 would mean that the UK would negotiate overnight with its largest trading partner without a free trade deal. Instead, it will be the WTO rules of the World Trade Organization that apply. This means fees and duties on everything from cars to chocolate, and higher prices for British consumers. Above all, it would mean an economic shock that would hit the already damaged British economy hard. Britain’s growth fell nearly twice that of Germany in the spring as a result of the pandemic. Unemployment is expected to rebound this fall as the government will stop helping companies with their wage costs, as it did during the pandemic. A non-contractual Brexit would add to this economic shock and create great uncertainty. However, Brexitists think that the long-term economic benefits of being outside the EU and thus avoiding following Brussels rules outweigh the negative effects of a non-contractual Brexit.
4. A non-contractual Brexit can cause chaos at the border
If there is no free trade agreement, goods entering the UK from January 1 will have to process new declarations and customs documents. Trucks will need to be controlled in ports and the UK is preparing large car parks where this can be done. All of them run the risk of causing a traffic chaos that, in the worst case, can shut down much of the country. The risk is that EU goods simply won’t make it to British stores before they rot. The government is stockpiling medicines and other necessities so that the British health system can cope with this situation. But this is not easy in the midst of a global pandemic. Therefore, the risk of food and medicine shortages in the UK would be high.
5. Regardless of the trade agreement, many things will be different in the UK.
Much attention is now being paid to negotiating a free trade agreement with the EU. But there are other parts of Brexit that are at least as important. For example, all immigrants from the EU who want the right to stay in the UK have had to apply for a residence permit during the year. A Swede who wants to go to work in London will need some kind of visa next year. This will be the case regardless of what happens to the free trade agreement. The Boris Johnson government wants to reduce labor immigration in low-paying industries, which Brexitists see as one of the most important benefits of Brexit. Like many young Swedes, going to work in a UK pub for a couple of months will no longer be possible in the same way from next year. For many companies, this labor issue is also one of the most important.
6. The trade agreement must be ready by October 15th.
As always when it comes to Brexit, time is running out. The EU and the UK have given each other until October 15 to agree. If they do not reach a trade agreement before then, both sides will begin preparing for a British exit from the EU on January 1.
British troops in Belfast in the 1970s.
Photo: Brian Aris / TT
7. There is a bad mood at this time
In the last week, the mines have soured and the parties have annoyed each other. This is because the Boris Johnson government has said it intends to violate international law and walk away from parts of the exit agreement with the EU that it has already signed. This applies specifically to the position of Northern Ireland and it is always sensitive due to the violent history of the region. Boris Johnson’s actions have further broken trust between the audience parties and have been controversial in the UK. Among other things, former Prime Minister Theresa May has collapsed in parliament.
Photo: Jessica Taylor / Parliament of the United Kingdom / AP
8. Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party functions differently from previous Conservative parties.
Just a few years ago, it would have been completely unthinkable for a British prime minister to even consider a no-contract Brexit. Who voluntarily takes that kind of risk with the economy? This is why many believe that Boris Johnson’s speech that Britain is at least prepared to go down that path if they don’t get what they want in the negotiations is just an empty threat. But Boris Johnson has fundamentally changed the Conservative Party. Today, they are first and foremost a Brexit party. For example, the economy ranks second. The party has become radicalized. According to sources with good transparency, several advisers around the Prime Minister also do not believe in the economic analyzes that show the danger of a non-contractual Brexit. The British government may be willing to risk it all on January 1 of next year.
Read more: The British choose to fight with the EU for the Brexit law
