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The coronavirus can infect about a quarter of a billion people in Africa, according to a new estimate from the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO estimates that 150,000 Africans could die in covid-19 next year, unless drastic measures are taken.
A hospital in Lagos, Nigeria. Stock Photography.
The authors of the study, published in BMJ Global Health, predict a lower infection rate than in Europe and the United States, and believe that the number of severe cases and deaths may be lower in Africa. At the same time, the continent is home to several of the world’s poorest countries, and researchers caution that medical care can quickly collapse during a build-up of coronary falls.
“Our model shows the scale of the problem for healthcare systems if attempts to stop the spread of infection fail,” the authors write.
Experts from the WHO African Department have calculated the expected proportion to be infected in the 47 countries included in the area of responsibility, all African countries except Djibouti, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan and Tunisia. A total of about 231 million people, 22 percent of the population, are forecast to contract the virus next year. However, it is believed that most can escape with mild or symptom-free symptoms.
About 4.6 million people are expected to need hospital care, 140,000 of them seriously ill and 89,000 critically ill. The number of deaths is estimated at around 150,000, with a range between 83,000 and 190,000).
“The region will have fewer deaths, but will hit more in relatively young age groups, including those previously considered healthy. This is due to undiagnosed non-communicable diseases, ”write the authors, who have already been able to see such trends.
WHO now calls on African governments to take rapid and powerful steps to strengthen the care capacities of their respective countries, especially in primary care.
Earlier this week, the United Nations Children’s Fund warned UNICEF that 1.2 million children in developing countries could die from other treatable diseases, as scarce medical resources are redirected to combat the crown.
They can suffer the worst
Small African countries are expected to be the most affected, according to the WHO study, which points to Mauritius as the country with the highest proportion of infected.
Of the main countries, in particular, South Africa, Cameroon and Algeria are mentioned as being at risk. The calculation has taken into account, for example, the “assembly factor” of each country, a factor that is calculated by observing the size of the family and the density of the population. In addition, hygiene routines and sanitary conditions are taken into account, as well as the population of different countries.
Source: AFP
