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What is happening in Ethiopia?
During the night until Wednesday, when the world’s eyes were on the United States, the Ethiopian federal army launched an offensive against Tigray province in the north. It was communicated by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. It says the offensive was launched after a raid on a military center in the provincial capital, Mekelle. Since then, we do not know exactly how it has gone, since Internet and telephony traffic has been closed throughout the province.
There would have been elections in September, but the elections were canceled due to the crown pandemic. Except in Tigray where they held elections anyway?
– It has been a war of words for several years and Tigray has not wanted to put up with the great national project that Abiy Ahmed has launched. They have broken with the old alliance. They decided to hold their local elections and have not recognized the regime in Addis since. Vice versa, the scheme in the direction of Addis TPLF does not recognize. Both sides claim that the other lacks support in the constitution. And that is what has led to this conflict.
Is there a risk of a new protracted civil war?
– Yes, there is above all an intense propaganda war where Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed seems stronger. He claims that this is a fast offensive that will soon be completed. But the TPLF has a long and proud history and they know that they managed to defeat the entire Ethiopian regime once before. They have a hardened organization with a long fighting habit and a lot of material. The risk is that if it only lasts for a few weeks, the bitterness will start to subside. It will be more difficult for someone to have a clear conclusion and then I think this can be a very long conflict.
What can the outside world do?
– The most important thing is to get both parties to lay down their weapons immediately. But who is to say this? The United States is still completely paralyzed internationally, at least until January, and the EU is fully occupied with the situation of the crown. Current African Union President and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s theme has been “silencing the guns.” But he has not made any statement on Ethiopia.
What will happen?
– The frustrating thing is that all the people who have followed Ethiopia for many years have warned that this is very serious. But still, it has been played exactly as people expected. I am very pessimistic here. I fear this could be a major crisis in the region.
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Read also Nine million may be forced to flee the civil war in Ethiopia
