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Hold on until this spring, then it will start to clear up. This is according to the Belgian Anders Tegnell, who minimizes the risk of new mutations of the virus.
Virologist Steven Van Gucht is one of the two Belgian counterparts of Swede Anders Tegnell.
– The next three, four months can be difficult, Steven Van Gucht, professor and virologist at the Belgian public health agency Sciensano, tells TT.
– But then the situation will improve.
The calculation is based on the slow but safe recoil of the virus with the help of vaccines.
– For the summer, I think the pressure has dropped considerably. If we can vaccinate at least 70 percent, we may see a total normalization of society by the fall or the end of the year, says Steven Van Gucht.
Recently, concern about mutations in the coronavirus has grown since, among other things, a new variant was discovered in the UK that is feared to be particularly contagious. Several countries, including Sweden, have introduced entry bans to try to prevent the spread.
But the fact that the virus mutation was first reported from the UK is likely due solely to the fact that the country is the best at detecting new variants, Steven Van Gucht believes.
– Other countries need to improve their controls for genetic changes (in the virus) to see what is happening at home. We must take general measures, not single out individual countries.
The fact that the virus mutates is to be expected and does not have to pose a significant threat. Developed vaccines will likely affect newer variants quite well as well.
– And if the efficacy against all odds drops dramatically, it is quite fast to develop new variants of the vaccine, says Steven Van Gucht.
Belgium, located in the center of western Europe and with a high population density, has been hit hard during the first and second corona waves.
The country has one of the highest death rates in the world in terms of population.
TT: Is there anything you could have done better to deal with the pandemic?
– We really haven’t had time to look back. In five, ten years we will have a clearer picture, says Steven Van Gucht.
– In general, I don’t think that major mistakes have been made, at least not from a scientific point of view. But the government should have reacted more quickly in mid-September, when the spread of the infection began to increase again.
TT: What are you most proud of?
– I am glad that the collaboration between researchers and politicians, however, has worked quite well, our advice has been listened to. I hope we can learn from that when it comes to fighting the climate crisis.
– The crisis has also shown that there is a high degree of solidarity in society. Around the world, people have been asked to make sacrifices in the fight against the virus and most, even among those who are not at risk, have been involved.
TT: Sweden’s strategy is debated. How do you look at it?
– In Sweden, a brave decision was made during the first wave. The uncertainty was great for all of us and in Belgium we decided to follow the example of the neighboring countries and close. But no one knew if it was necessary, if it would cost more than he knew.
– In Sweden you said: we stick to the recommendations. And if you compare Sweden with Belgium, you can say that it was not so bad because the statistics during the first wave seemed better to you, says Steven Van Gucht.
He adds:
– But in retrospect, it can be assumed that it would have been better with stricter measures, as in Norway and Denmark, which have better numbers and do not seem to have suffered much worse economically than Sweden due to their measures.
Steven Vad Gucht
Head of the Department of Viral Diseases of the Belgian Public Health Agency Sciensano.
He began his career at Sciensano in 2005 in the agency’s rabies control department. He assumed his current position in 2010.
Graduated with a doctorate in veterinary medicine from the University of Ghent in 2005.
