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“Trump says America is leaving NATO!”
The rumor spread like wildfire among journalists in the press center. It was July 12, 2018. The location was NATO headquarters in Brussels. A two-day summit with the alliance’s 29 heads of state and government was about to end with an agreement.
But Trump suddenly broke the summit agenda and issued an ultimatum. If Europeans didn’t pay more on January 1, 2019, the United States would go its own way, Trump threatened.
But at the last minute The president’s aides managed to prevent Trump from leaving NATO. “Even though his toe was on the line multiple times,” his national security adviser John Bolton testified in his book “The Room Where It Happened.”
– We know that Trump believes that NATO is not worth it, unless the Allies pay more, much more. Through Bolton’s book, we know how close he came to Trump pulling the United States out of the alliance. It’s not impossible for a reelected Trump to return to that idea, says Constanze Steltzenmueller.
She is a German expert on European and transatlantic security policy, working at the Brookings Institute in Washington DC. If the United States leaves NATO, member states will be forced to do more for their own security. And the Nordic and Baltic countries would try to close their own agreements with the United States, he estimates.
NATO is not just a military alliance but also America’s most important tool for political influence in Europe. That is why the United States Congress, both Republicans and Democrats, wants to safeguard NATO, founded in Washington 71 years ago. Therefore, Trump may choose another method, American Dov Zakheim fears.
Zakheim has held senior positions in the Pentagon under Republican Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. Although he is a Republican, he is one of 780 retired national security experts, diplomats and officials who in a call urged Americans to vote for Joe Biden.
“I think Trump will remove the United States from the NATO commandos, as de Gaulle did with France,” said Dov Zakheim.
President of Frankrikes In 1966, Charles de Gaulle decided to abandon NATO military cooperation. In 1966-2009, therefore, there were no French officers in the NATO commands. At the Alliance headquarters, Americans hold top positions, while commanding America’s own forces in Europe. In this way, NATO can tap into the vast resources of the United States, an opportunity that will be lost if the Americans leave.
– The result would be that NATO is emasculated, which would be a gift for Vladimir Putin, says Dov Zakheim.
The Russian hope is that the United States, so to speak, recognizes that Russia is entitled to its own sphere of interest in its immediate area.
Russia is the largest military power in the Baltic Sea and he’s been renovating for over ten years and he’s acting more and more offensively. Putin prefers that Trump, who never said a bad word about him, win the election. This according to Russia expert Gudrun Persson, research leader at the Swedish Defense Research Agency FOI.
– Even if they perceive Trump as unreliable, they are still used to him after four years. When he was elected, there were high expectations in Moscow that the United States and Russia would agree on the heads of the small states. That hasn’t happened, but there may be new hope for it, says Gudrun Persson, who explains:
– This means that small states such as Sweden, Finland and the Baltic countries do not have much to say. The Russian hope is that the United States, so to speak, recognizes that Russia is entitled to its own sphere of interest in its immediate area.
Will we live more dangerously in the Baltic Sea area with Trump for another four years?
– Yes, if you point it out, maybe I can say it. From the Russian side, anything that strengthens the transatlantic link and cohesion is bad for Russia. They want to see a weakening, they undermine and undermine our democratic states and our defense cooperation, responds Gudrun Persson.
Constanze Steltzenmueller, Dov Zakheim and Gudrun Persson.
Photo: Brookings, D Zakheim, FOI
When Russia attacked Ukraine In 2014, the United States was the fastest reacting NATO ally. American fighter jets in Britain flew to Lithuania to defend the Baltic countries. President Barack Obama and later NATO decided to strengthen defenses in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. This is done through rotating units where the US has the largest troop contributions (see chart).
Reinforcements have continued under President Trump. But next year, the US budget to maintain troops in the Baltic Sea region will be cut. And in June, Trump announced that 12,000 soldiers would leave, a third of the American soldiers in Germany.
This is causing concern in Lithuania, which is currently NATO’s clearest front line. A unit of US tanks and reconnaissance aircraft are training there near the border with troubled Belarus. This is a clear signal for Presidents Alexander Lukashenko and Putin. Lithuanians trust US aid, but distrust Trump, writes Monika Bičkauskaite of the German Marshall Fund in Lithuania:
“The worst case scenario is that Trump completely withdraws US troops from Europe, leaves NATO, and perhaps allows Russia to interfere with Europe’s security architecture.”
If Joe Biden wins, so what?
– Biden is a true Atlanticist. He would restore America’s credibility within NATO and do everything possible to heal the wounds inflicted on Trump by the Alliance. I would take a tougher line against Russian adventures and encourage our non-NATO partners in the Nordic region to continue working closely with us, and with NATO, responds Dov Zakheim.
Regardless of the outcome of the November 3 elections, Europeans must do more for their own safety
Gudrun Persson and Constanze Steltzenmueller also believe it will be a tougher American attitude towards Russia with Joe Biden.
We Swedes got a preview of this when Biden visited Sweden as Vice President in August 2016. At the press conference with Stefan Löfven, he gave a response that was perceived as an informal security guarantor for Sweden:
– We have a partnership between NATO and Sweden on how we see an undivided, free, secure and peaceful Europe. So let there be no misunderstanding, not with Putin or anyone else, that this is inviolable territory. Point. Point. Period! Joe Biden insisted.
– I’m sure a Biden administration will pay special attention to NATO’s northeast flank. But regardless of the outcome of the November 3 elections, Europeans must do more for their own safety, says Constanze Steltzenmueller.
NATO decided in 2014 that its members would invest 2 percent of their gross domestic product in defense in 2024. This year, only 10 out of 30 countries are expected to reach the goal, according to NATO. The three Baltic countries and Poland are already there, while Germany and Denmark are both at 1.3 percent. Sweden, which is not a member of NATO, is the lowest of the Baltic Sea countries at 1.1 percent.
– Biden would also push for Europeans to get more on the defense, but not as rude as Trump, says Dov Zakheim. And Constanze Steltzenmueller agrees:
– Americans are tired of their “endless wars”. Washington must show its citizens that the Allies bear a fair share of the cost of defending Europe.
