[ad_1]
Presidential election in the United States
Joe Biden has been at the helm for months, but now Donald Trump is participating. Florida, the jewel in the crown of the rolling states, may well be the place where the US presidential election is decided.
“Both Biden and Trump believe they can win here,” says political scientist Aubrey Jewett of TT.
Jewett, who is a professor at the University of Central Florida, smiles double-headed at almost every question TT asks:
The ongoing protests against racism could benefit Democratic challenger Joe Biden, who has strong support among minorities. But the riots and looting that followed protests in some cities may promote the president, who has emerged as the one who upholds law and order.
And yes, some Voters can conclude that Trump is the right person to lead the economic recovery when the crown pandemic subsides. But the criticized handling of COVID-19 by the White House could also erode support for the president.
“Many will probably look at the economy and the high death toll and say it’s Trump’s fault. In Florida alone, more than 12,000 people have died,” Jewett says.
“It could very well affect older white voters, a group that was very supportive of Trump four years ago.”
The latter has been adopted by Democrat Joe Biden. Local TV stations are now announcing that retirees who have moved to Florida to enjoy old age in the sun are blaming the president for mismanagement of the pandemic and high death rates. The campaign is targeting central Florida, where many of the older so-called “sunbirds” live: the sunbirds, people who live in the south during the winter.
If not To bring Florida home, a presidential candidate must also deliver messages that fall on good ground with the state’s large minority groups, Hispanics and Blacks, as well as the sizeable group of military personnel who live there. And each constituency has subgroups, among Spanish speakers are, for example, Cuban-Americans who tend to vote more conservatively than other “Hispanics.”
A candidate must set aside a lot of time and money and do their homework to win here. It’s important to carefully formulate your different messages, “Jewett says.
“In plain language, this means that Biden should emphasize Trump’s insufficient handling of the virus and the large number of deaths in covid-19.” Trump needs to talk about economic recovery and law and order. “
Why then How important is the dense peninsula of palm trees and swamps in the southeast? This is because Florida is the largest wave master state, with 29 coveted voters. In a presidential election where it is about reaching 270 voters first, and where many states are already “safe” Republican or Democratic strongholds, the struggle for the states where it is located and weighs between the political parties becomes even more intense.
Florida residents have a history of political change. In 1996, they ensured that Democrat Bill Clinton was re-elected, in the subsequent two elections a majority supported Republican George W Bush and then supported Democrat Barack Obama for two terms. In 2000, the entire presidential election hinged on the equitable outcome in Florida between Bush and Democrat Al Gore. A protracted dispute meant that Bush’s victory with 537 votes was ultimately decided by the Supreme Court.
“We’re good at conversions here,” Jewett says dryly.
For four years then both Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton aggressively campaigned in Florida to the end. Opinion polls suggest Clinton’s victory, but Trump won by 1.2 percentage points.
It’s just slightly less than the 1.6 percentage points that make up Biden’s lead over Trump in the polls right now. Jewett notes that both have a moment of intense courtship from Florida voters ahead of them, something he believes will be more difficult for the president.
“Four years ago, Trump held a lot of mass rallies here, both indoors and outdoors. It was his way of generating enthusiasm among the electorate. But I don’t see that he can campaign in the same way this year, many voters are too concerned about his Health “.
