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Of: TT
Published:
February 1 | Photo: Ross D. Franklin / AP / TT
US President Donald Trump will hold an election rally in Tucson, Arizona, on October 19.
The presidential election generally follows a familiar routine with polling place voting and a victorious candidate before the evening. But this year, nothing is as it is in the United States. Here are three possible scenarios after the last vote.
The outcome is usually more or less clear at the end of election night or overnight and the loser admits defeat in the morning. But the November 3, 2020, election is likely to be unusual, in part due to the corona pandemic.
A record number have voted before and the millions of votes by mail will take a long time to count. Therefore, there is a risk that the usual tension on election night becomes a protracted process over days or weeks.
Button or clear win for Joe Biden
Most polls show Democrat Joe Biden’s victory, both nationally and in terms of the number of electoral votes that ultimately decide the election. But the unexpected outcome of the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton won the most votes nationally but still lost due to the electoral system, makes analysts cautious about pinpointing a winner in advance.
Like Clinton, winning the people’s vote but losing the Electoral College is not the norm. This has only happened five times in 58 presidential elections.
To be elected, 270 electoral votes are required, a figure that Biden has the opportunity to reach already on election night, depending on how fast the vote counting goes in the different states.
– Biden needs to win by a significant margin in the major states, and perhaps a few more, to present himself as a clear winner on election night, says Dag Blanck, professor of American studies at Uppsala University.
– A clear result in the Electoral College, that is, if Biden received more than 300 electoral votes, it would make the result more difficult to question. But there is still a risk that President Donald Trump will claim election fraud if he loses.
Today, Biden has an advantage in three key states that Trump unexpectedly took home in the last election: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, they are expected to take a long time to count. This means that if Biden doesn’t win the Florida electorate, or if he quickly becomes too even to chorus the winner there, he probably won’t be able to announce victory on Election Night.
Hardly a win for Donald Trump
Polls are not very likely yet, although Donald Trump has been entering recently. The Republican president has a chance to declare himself the winner on election night. So, however, it is most likely a limited win and no landslide victory.
Trump may well take the victory home to states like Florida, Arizona and Ohio. But it may take a long time after polling stations have closed before they can report a result. Arizona and Florida tend to count quickly, but they’ve even been in elections where it’s been a while before they can announce who won. In Ohio, votes will be counted up to ten days after Election Day.
That Trump’s numbers were not higher in the polls heading into the 2016 elections, some say can be explained by “the timid voters of Trump”, that is, his followers did not want to admit their support when they received the question. But this year, it’s probably not an equally widespread phenomenon, according to Blanck.
– There is a strong loyalty and mobilization around Trump. Those who like him really like him, he says.
– Many Americans have already decided who they will vote for. The danger for Trump is that he has lost voters who were in mid-2016, whom his campaign and message attracted, and who really did not want to vote for Clinton.
It’s November 4 and nobody knows who has won
Democrats are expected to vote by mail to a greater extent than Republicans, in part because Trump warned of voter fraud in the mail vote. And different states handle early voting differently. The rules differ when it comes to sorting, counting and when the election committee must have received a vote by mail to be valid. Some will start by counting Election Day votes, which means that it may be to Trump’s advantage on Election Night to turn to Biden later when mail ballots are added to the result.
– There is a risk that the result of the elections will be delayed, says Blanck.
– Some are concerned that candidates will be declared winners on election night before all the votes are counted and the result will be different after a few days.
Biden has said he will accept the result, while Trump has questioned the legitimacy of the election and indicated that he does not intend to admit a loss. It sows a seed of uncertainty and opens a chaotic situation with legal repercussions, lawsuits and accusations of fraud to question a controversial outcome.
December 14 is the deadline. The voters then meet to formally cast their vote. If for some reason there is no result, the decision on who will become the electorate lands with the state, but is unlikely to go that far, according to Blanck.
– It’s very speculative. But the best thing would be if there were a clear outcome on election night, it would reduce potential problems that might otherwise arise.
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