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Four years with Donald Trump have made the world more insecure in many ways.
Will everything return to normal with Joe Biden?
We will probably see more cooperation and less confrontation with the outside world.
Except China, which will be your toughest and most immediate challenge.
Joe Biden has yet to come up with a comprehensive foreign policy plan. He’s fully committed to even gaining access to the security reports that a newly elected president always receives, but is denied by Trump.
But he has made some things clear.
The United States will rejoin the Paris Agreement. This is perhaps the biggest and most important change for the outside world. With the United States on the train, the chances of limiting the temperature rise in the world increase and thus reducing the risks that the most serious threat to humanity in the coming decades will become reality.
Biden has made it clear that with him it is science that governs climate policy and not climate deniers and that he wants to cooperate with the rest of the world.
Photo: Carolyn Kaster / TT
Will everything return to normal with Joe Biden?
The same applies to fighting the corona pandemic. I suspect that it will reinstate the United States contribution to the World Health Organization (WHO) quite immediately. It will also consult Europe to find a sustainable strategy to fight the virus.
With Biden, it will end the sniper against the NATO military alliance that Trump has committed to. Biden wants to restore good relations with America’s allies in Europe and the rest of the world. This means that the world’s liberal democratic blocs could regain a much stronger position in the world arena, which means less room for maneuver for Russia and China to strengthen their influence.
Unclear with powder floor
The same applies to several “little potatoes” who seized the opportunity to advance their positions when Trump let the United States sit in the back seat. These include, for example, Erdogan from Turkey and Netanyahu from Israel.
However, it is unclear how Biden will handle the powder keg in the Middle East.
He will want to maintain good US relations with Israel, but without allowing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to get everything he points out.
Biden should probably not be expected to move the US embassy from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv, even if he opposed the move. However, it will demand that Israel resume negotiations with the Palestinians on a long-term peace agreement.
Biden will certainly build on Trump’s success with various Arab states around the Persian Gulf establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. But it will try to combine that with reestablishing US involvement in the Iran nuclear deal.
It is not an easy balancing act because Saudi Arabia and its allied Gulf states now view Iran as a greater enemy than Israel. But here it will have strong support from both the EU and Russia, both of whom want the agreement that ensures that Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons begin to function fully again.
It could help reduce tensions in the region and in the world.
Photo: Evan Vucci / TT
“Not everything will be business as usual just because Trump disappears,” writes Wolfgang Hansson.
Under Trump, the United States has spoken in two languages towards Russia. Trump did not mean a bad word about President Putin, rather praising him, while the US Congress maintained a hard line.
Requires response about virus
With Biden, America will once again speak with one voice. If Russia does not stop its destabilizing activities in the West, Putin will feel the wrath of the United States in a more tangible way.
As for China, we can count on Biden to continue Trump’s hard line. Not least after China fired four opposition politicians from the local parliament in Hong Kong, but the consequence was that all the opposition candidates abandoned their seats.
China’s dominance over Hong Kong is in direct violation of the 1997 agreement, which meant that the former crown colony would be allowed to retain its freedoms for at least 50 years.
Now Biden must show that he is prepared to confront China’s human rights abuses and the country’s attempts to assume its position as a global superpower.
The American people will also demand answers to what China did and did not do to prevent the coronavirus from spreading around the world.
But not everything will be as usual just because Trump disappears. It is impossible to completely turn back the clock and erase the four years of greatest chaos in the world to which the American president has contributed.
There are also question marks for Biden’s ability to work. Do you have the strength to travel the world and meet important leaders? How many balls can he hold in the air at the same time? No matter what one thinks of Trump, he has shown great energy.
Much will be different with Biden, but not everything.
But first you must persuade Donald Trump to start packing his moving boxes.
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