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Since the coronavirus was first discovered, experts have warned that a second wave of infection will strike in the fall or winter. But when you see now in parts of Europe how the curves go up again, it is locally limited eruptions, something that has been reported from Romania, Belgium, Spain, Denmark and Germany, among others.
A total of 19 European countries currently have higher per capita infection rates than Sweden, where the rate of spread of infection has been declining for some time.
Johan Carlson, CEO for the Public Health Agency, he points out that they only work with the Swedish strategy and are aware of it. However, it is allowed to speculate as to what the differences are:
– Basically, I know that from many countries you see that it is difficult to operate different lines at the same time – first have a closure, then release it to see that the situation is just as serious again, he says and continues:
– Then it is the case that some countries are more densely populated in general and culturally more difficult to distance. I don’t want to be too stereotyped, this is what most of them have to think themselves, but we see, and are satisfied with, that the strategy we have followed to reduce the spread of infection in society seems to work after all. It was combined with testing and monitoring of infections that started quite late.
This summer, the Swedish Public Health Agency presented Three different scenarios of what the spread of the infection might look like up to September 1, 2021.
• In what is called scenario 0, the decrease in the spread of infection continues according to current levels. On stage, the authority expects 204 new deaths.
• Scenario 1 shows a more uneven development with peaks during the fall and around the turn of the year, in relation to which Swedes are expected to start deviating from the guidelines of the Public Health Agency and socialize in larger groups. Here, the authority expects 3,213 new deaths.
• In scenario 2, the spread of infection increases steadily over a longer period of time. Development is sustained in all regions of the country and without a direct peak. In scenario 2, the authority expects 5,886 new deaths.
The public health authority believes mainly in scenario 1 with local outbreaks, as is the spread of the infection in other countries at the moment.
– During the fall, we will probably not have the wide society that we had before. After all, these outbreaks were a fairly small part of the total number of cases in Sweden. Now there will likely be very local outbreaks, state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said at Tuesday’s news conference.
Anders Tegnell, a state epidemiologist with the Public Health Agency.
Photo: Pontus Lundahl / TT
In line with scenario 1, a new, slightly revised strategy has also been presented which gives the authority the opportunity to recommend local restrictions in the event of an outbreak. This may include distance learning at certain colleges and universities, quarantine for individuals, and a possible lower threshold for Public Order Law.
The National Board of Health and Welfare also believes in that scenario, although there is availability for the other options. In order to rapidly strengthen intensive care in vulnerable regions, they will now investigate the possibilities of creating special personnel teams to dispatch when necessary.
These are doctors, nurses and nursing assistants who work daily in their normal workplaces.
– In a situation of rapid onset, we believe that it reinforces the general preparedness that a trained team can send that can help to alleviate, or that a medical module can send together with trained personnel. The National Board of Health and Welfare is not a provider of care, but we coordinate a system in which we train and train staff from the regions, says Johanna Sandwall, chief of emergency preparedness for the authority.
It already exists a similar system for the Swedish national ambulance flight that developed after the tsunami, when they saw the need to be able to bring seriously injured Swedes home from abroad.
– We propose this as a concept and we will sit down with the profession, the regions and SKR (municipalities and regions of Sweden) and see if they see the same needs as us. But it is certainly different. These kinds of things need to be coordinated so that a region’s staff is not exhausted. There are many different systems for doing this, says Johanna Sandwall.
Read more:
Tegnell: “Very local eruptions this fall”
Stockholm was hit hard by the pandemic: how is the city coping with autumn?
Local coronary restrictions may become relevant this fall
Europe fears a second wave and countries are taking steps to stop the infection
