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The forecasts were extremely low. The events also became bleak. Following the crown pandemic, unemployment increased from 4.4 percent in March to 14.7 in April.
The 20.5 million figure also marked the worst run since the depression in the 1930s.
Paradoxically, for many, the grim figures were taken with a shrug of the financial market. The Wall Street leading index increased between 1.6 and 1.9 percent. The explanation is, in part, that while the figure of work finds what has been so, analysts are looking forward.
Huge efforts
– On the one hand, you can see that the United States government is making great efforts. So the most important thing, that is, the opening of American society. The sooner it opens, the more unemployed people think it should return, too, says Knut Hallberg, a senior economist at Swedbank.
– Now you are hoping that the corona virus is under control and hoping for a V-curve, everyone knows that it fell straight into the basement and now they think it will re-emerge.
TT: And what do you think?
– I have more doubts and believe more in a prolonged recovery. We don’t have a vaccine yet, and many, especially the elderly, will be cautious, meaning that activity in the economy will be less.
Claes Måhlén, chief strategist at Handelsbanken is on the same line.
– There are many question marks. If there is a new spread of the infection, it would be a disaster for the economy and for the confidence of the authorities. Although the economy will develop as a V, we do not believe that the second part of the V is as high as before the fall.
Consequences for Sweden
Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson (S) is concerned about the US figures.
“It may also have consequences for Sweden and our export industry, as the United States is one of our most important trading partners,” he says in a written comment.
Magdalena Andersson points out that the situation is very serious since the United States has relatively weak social protection networks. He adds that many American households are at risk of ending up in poverty and that it has consequences for the entire economy.
The Finance Minister recalls that the government has already presented important crisis packages for Sweden.
“We are following development very closely and are ready to take more action quickly if the situation deteriorates,” says Andersson.
Play the numbers
President Donald Trump, surprisingly, did not tone down the numbers in an interview with Fox, claiming that he “will make sure the jobs come back.” For Trump, it is now a unique and problematic situation. A couple of months ago, it was almost certainly considered that he would be reelected, in some of the more recent polls, instead, Joe Biden of the Democrats approached.
– Your reelection depends on a fragile thread. Now he will try to instill courage and optimism and continue to stimulate fiscal policy. Then there is the situation with China, where he, on the one hand, wants trade agreement negotiations, on the other, wants to blame someone if he doesn’t get his way, says Knut Hallberg.
Tobias Österberg / TT
The American job market is almost closed. Stock Photography. Image: Nam Y. Huh / AP / TT
