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During the fall, the spread of the infection gained new momentum across much of the world. David Nabarro, a special corona expert at the World Health Organization (WHO), believes that Europe did not prepare for a new wave of infections during the summer months, when the spread was comparatively low.
– Now we are in a second wave, but if we do not build the necessary infrastructure, we will have a third wave early next year, says the infection control doctor according to Reuters.
In other parts of the world, such as the United States, Iran and South Korea, there is already talk of a third wave of spread of the infection. Among other things, Nabarro points to Switzerland’s decision to allow ski trips as a hasty conclusion, which could worsen the situation in the EU.
– When the risk of infection decreases, and will decrease, people can live more freely again. But now? We have to wait until the numbers stay low. Europe’s action has been insufficient.
Third wave in February
Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, has worked with projections of the spread of the infection during the pandemic. He believes that a third wave could reach Sweden as early as February.
– If we manage to cushion the current wave fairly quickly and the infection comes down to Christmas, then there is a risk that we will start to relax and ignore the recommendations around February. So it can certainly be a third wave. So the second wave tends to be smaller than the first and the third smaller than the second, he says.
Fredrik Elgh, professor of virology at Umeå University, also believes that measures and restrictions are decisive in determining whether and when a new wave of infection spreads to Sweden. He has advocated a stricter line than the Swedish Public Health Agency, with, for example, mouth protection and schools and restaurants closed.
– When the spread of the infection took off in the fall, we weren’t alert enough. Now it has started to bend a bit, there is hope around the bend, but a third wave could come to Sweden if we start to let society go again. It all depends on what we do now, says Fredrik Elgh.
“Worse the colder it gets”
According to him, the onset of winter can also increase the risk of infection, if the spread of the corona follows the pattern of the flu season.
– The conditions for the spread of the infection get worse and worse the colder it is, when we pack indoors, but also physically because it becomes a drier indoor environment. At least we’ve seen that in influenza viruses, says Fredrik Elgh.
However, relief can be seen on the vaccine front. It can also be important for the continued spread of infection.
– Development will be affected by when the vaccine arrives and how quickly it is implemented. But it’s also a question of how long immunity from the COVID-19 review lasts, says AnnaSara Carnahan, an epidemiologist at the Swedish Public Health Agency.
Different views on the concept
State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has long objected to the use of the term “second wave,” in part because the term is traditionally used to describe a new, potentially deadlier form of virus.
– A second wave is technically when a large part of the population has had a virus, then comes back after a while and has mutated. On the other hand, a large part of the population lacks protection, says Fredrik Elgh.
Therefore, it can be said that we are still in the first corona wave, according to Carnahan.
– We see a second round of infection spread now, but since the infection never completely stopped during the summer, it is actually still a first wave of the virus, depending on how you choose to define it. However, without measures, there would have been a bigger wave this spring, he says.
See more:
A more positive report from WHO on the status of the crown.
The limit will take effect from Tuesday, November 24.
