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Can we trust that vaccines can handle all the new coronavirus mutations?
South Africa’s decision to discontinue all use of the Astra-Zeneca coronavine vaccine raises more of a big question mark.
This is bad news for overcoming the disease worldwide, but especially for many poor countries.
When an extra-contagious British mutation became known a few months ago, it created great concern but not panic. The experts said that after all, it appeared that the vaccines developed against COVID-19 would work almost as well in the new variant as the original virus.
A very reassuring message.
Around the same time, a South African mutation began to spread to Europe and the United States. Many assumed that the message here would be the same. That the vaccines would continue to bite the new variant.
But now a study from South Africa shows that this is not the case. Researchers have followed 2,000 people between the ages of 18 and 64 who received the vaccine developed jointly by Astra Zeneca and the University of Oxford and compared them with a group that received placebo, that is, an ineffective vaccine.
The results are very disappointing.
They show that the Astra Zeneca vaccine provides very poor protection against mild and moderate COVID-19. Efficiency can be as low as ten percent. In South Africa, variant B1.351 accounts for 90 percent of all covid-19 cases.
It is not known if the vaccine protects against severe covid, because the average age of those included in the study was 31 years and very few young people have severe covid-19.
The results are so alarming that South Africa has decided not to use the Astra Zeneca vaccine, despite the fact that a week ago it received a million doses and was intended to immunize mainly healthcare professionals. Instead, use some of the vaccines from other manufacturers.
Photo: AP
A dose of Astra Zeneca vaccine is being prepared for injection.
The vaccine of the poor
This not only questions South Africa’s fight against COVID-19, but a large part of that of developing countries and the rest of the world.
The great advantage of the Astra Zeneca vaccine is that it is sufficient with the temperature of the refrigerator to transport and store it. Unlike Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, they do not need to be frozen. The cost of the vaccine dose is also significantly less than the other two.
COVAX, the UN’s global vaccination program, relies heavily on the Astra Zeneca vaccine to enable mass vaccinations, especially in poor countries. It is being mass produced right now in India, among other places.
The problem is that the South African mutation is not only found in South Africa, it is spreading across Africa and other continents. To date, it has been found in 32 countries. Because it is more contagious than the original, there is a risk that it will eventually take over many countries.
In that case, it would be practically useless to vaccinate hundreds of millions of people with a vaccine that has a very low efficacy against COVID-19.
The manufacturer says they are already in the process of developing a modified vaccine that will be able to handle the South African variant. But it won’t be available until this fall.
Sweden has ordered large quantities of vaccine from Astra Zeneca to vaccinate all Swedes before the summer.
Photo: Jerome Delay / AP
Volunteers at a clinic on the outskirts of Johannesburg in South Africa are waiting to test Asta Zeneca’s covid-19 vaccine in November last year.
Fight the clock
Other manufacturers also report poorer protection for their vaccines against the South African variant, but not as dramatic a drop in effectiveness as the Astra Zeneca vaccine.
There is a risk that many people suspect and refrain from getting vaccinated.
In the worst case, it means a significant delay in the world’s ability to create comprehensive protection against COVID-19.
It will take even longer before we can safely travel around the world again. Which means that many economies will continue to suffer severely from the effects of the crown.
Meanwhile, the risk increases that the virus will re-create mutations that are more contagious and that the vaccines developed will not work as well. Achieving herd immunity in the world becomes much more difficult and takes longer.
What we can see is a battle against the clock in which vaccine manufacturers must constantly modify their vaccines to be as effective as the original studies showed, for example, for Pfizer and Moderna, about 95 percent.
Covid-19 continues to elude humanity. Just when we thought vaccines could save us quickly, new problems emerged.
Photo: Shiraaz Mohamed / AP
The funeral home staff in Johannesburg take care of the body of a person who died in covid-19.
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