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In several regions, the number of covid cases has increased considerably in recent weeks. Among other things, this has led to local restrictions being introduced in both Uppsala and Skåne.
Anders Tegnell from the Public Health Agency notes, however, that there is a big difference from how the situation looked in the spring; above all, this is a significantly lower level of confirmed cases.
– That is the big difference – and also what happens in other age groups. This spring, we had a great spread of the infection among the elderly in nursing homes. We don’t have it like that at all now. Now it is mostly a spread of the infection among young adults.
Can you call this a second wave?
– We have talked a lot about what a second wave is in this situation. But as long as we have this kind of pretty patchy spread here and there in the country, I wouldn’t call it a second wave, so it should probably have a more extensive spread over much of the country.
This summer, the Swedish Public Health Agency presented Three different scenarios of what the spread of the infection might look like up to September 1, 2021.
• In what is called scenario 0, the decrease in the spread of infection continues according to current levels. On stage, the authority expects 204 new deaths.
Scenario 1 shows a more uneven development with peaks during the fall and around the turn of the year, in relation to which Swedes are expected to start deviating from the Swedish Public Health Agency guidelines and socialize in larger groups. Here, the authority expects 3,213 new deaths.
• In scenario 2, the spread of infection increases steadily over a longer period of time. Development is sustained in all regions of the country and without a direct peak. In scenario 2, the authority expects 5,886 new deaths.
The public health authority has believed most in stage 1 with local shoots. But in some regions there is now talk of a widespread spread of infection in the population rather than clear groups. Anders Tegnell admits that reality does not quite follow his visions.
– There are probably quite a few clusters, although they are quite small and numerous. Perhaps we had seen more in front of us a little less, but larger groups. The larger groups do not seem to be as dominant. There are some such descriptions, but not as many as we might have initially thought.
Wasn’t it pretty spotty this spring too?
– Yes, but it was much longer. Even those who had less spread then probably had more than those with the most today.
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