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The variant of the South African crown has been singled out as the worst of the mutated viruses.
The variant has now been discovered in more and more Swedish regions.
– It is almost impossible to prevent the spread because it is probably more contagious than the original variant, says Niklas Arnberg, a virologist at Umeå University.
The South African virus variant, which Vaccine Coordinator Richard Bergström noted as the worst among the new variants, has been found in several Swedish regions. In Stockholm, three cases were discovered at the beginning of January and it is also in Västra Götaland, which, however, did not say how many cases there were. It has also been found in Gävleborg, which announced on Saturday that it had received the first Swedish case of the Brazilian variant.
This week, two more regions announced that several cases had been found. In Dalarna, there are two infected people in Sälen.
In Västmanland, the first cluster outbreak in Sweden with 20 infected people has been discovered. None of them could be travel related.
– It will be difficult to completely prevent its spread. It’s almost impossible to do that because it’s a bit more contagious than the original variant, believes Niklas Arnberg.
Photograph: Alexandra Bengtsson / SvD / TT
Niklas Arnberg.
“Hope there is more”
Neither he nor Jan Albert, a professor of microbiology and infection control at KI, are particularly surprised that the South African variant has been discovered in various parts of the country. Both consider that the variant is more widespread than we know. Currently, only a small proportion of all positive samples are analyzed with that level of detail.
– We don’t test all of them, so it would be strange if we found all of them. Several cases have had a direct link to travel in South Africa, but some have not. If such a case exists, you can probably count on more to come, says Jan Albert.
But it’s hard to judge exactly what the dark numbers look like.
– The number of cases found so far is quite small, but there are probably more. Especially in regions where spread has already been observed, says Niklas Arnberg.
Photo: Janerik Henrsson / TT
Jan Albert.
Worse than the British mutation
At present, it is not known whether the South African virus variant is more dangerous than previous variants. The concern that it will take hold in Sweden is based mainly on two things: it is believed to be more contagious and the vaccine is suspected to be less effective on it.
According to Jan Albert, it is of more concern than the British mutation.
– It’s a bit more difficult. The bottom line is that they both appear to be more contagious and also appear to be different in the way that neither the vaccine nor past infections seem to provide as good protection against this variant as the original variants are small.
“You must get vaccinated”
Despite the questions surrounding the vaccine’s effectiveness in newer variants, it’s important to get vaccinated when it’s your turn, says Niklas Arnberg.
– Some may think that it is not an idea to get vaccinated, but it is dangerous and unfortunate to reason like that. It is very important that you get vaccinated regardless of the vaccine you are offered. Because the more we vaccinate, the more infection is delayed, and then the risk of more new and potentially worse variants emerging decreases.
After the spread of infection decreased for a period, now several regions experience an increase again. In Stockholm, the infection increased by 24.1 percent last week.
Could this be due to the new, more contagious variants?
– It may be that, but it may also be that people are tired of the pandemic. Local temperature and climate fluctuations can also play a role. We’ve had a pretty cold winter and maybe we’ve caught more of the infection, says Niklas Arnberg.
How concerned are you about the new variants that are being discovered?
– I am concerned about all the new varieties, but a little more for the South African and the Brazilian.
“Don’t have private parties”
To slow down the progress of the South African variant, the same rule of thumb applies as for the pandemic in general: keep the infection low. But Jan Albert doesn’t think you have to stay home in your region during sports holidays.
– So far there are so few cases. The same rules apply regardless of whether you go to a winter sports center or stay at home. You shouldn’t hang out outside your own group, be crowded at stores, or have private parties.
To track new variants, track infections, and implement the correct infection control measures, testing needs to be expanded. It’s underway, according to Jan Albert. At Karolinska University Hospital, ten percent of the samples are now analyzed, according to the recommendation of the Swedish Public Health Agency.
– Then there is another form of screening with a kind of mutation PCR test in which specific parts of the virus genome are observed. You can then analyze all positive samples. It is underway in some laboratories and at Karolinska University Hospital our goal is to put it into operation as soon as possible.
The latest update from the Public Health Agency on the spread of the new virus mutations is from February 11. Aftonbladet has contacted the Swedish Public Health Agency for comment and updated information on the spread of the South African variant. The press service refers to the press conference on Tuesday.
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