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Can the Liberals participate in drawing up a state budget together with the Swedish Democrats after the next election? Or should liberals draw their red line there and say no to budget discussions with SD?
It may sound like a tantrum. But that the budget issue has been given so much weight is not as strange as it may sound: the budget is by far the most important decision a government makes each year, all other policies revolve around it. It is with the budget that a government pushes through its ideological orientation for Sweden.
The budget is too much the key to power for parties that want to cooperate with a government. If a right-wing government needs to depend on SD in order to govern, then it must offer SD a budget that it likes; otherwise the government will fall, it may not even be able to take office. The budget is the backbone of government power.
For Nyamko Sabuni, therefore, it is a key issue not to close the door on budget negotiations with the Swedish Democrats. Then he would also close the door on the right-wing voters he hopes to attract by assuring them that liberals will support a moderate government. Therefore, he would also risk closing the door on the Riksdag himself, as his calculation is based on the Liberals being able to stay there by winning enough right-wing voters.
But the budget problem is so fragile that the party leadership was forced to step forward like broken glass in order not to risk a setback on Sunday. The messages have been floating around and are difficult to interpret even for members of the party’s board. But in the last few days, we have been able to discern the contours of how the management intends the relationship with SD.
The party leadership seems to think that no, there should not be budget negotiations like the ones the Social Democrats have had with their coalition parties in recent years. Instead, a right-wing government must present its budget proposal to the Riksdag, even if it hasn’t made sure it has enough support to pass. Once there, the government will negotiate with the Swedish democrats, because in reality only SD will want to help a right-wing government, to get enough support for its policy with SD votes.
The Social Democrats are cutting understood immediately. The Minister of Finance, Magdalena Andersson, warns about the disorder in public finances if the entire budget is to be negotiated in the Riksdag. The Sweden Democrats, that is, the party that the liberal debate is about, have pointed out that liberals should not believe that they can set conditions and that SD wants budget negotiations directly with a right-wing government. It is a fact that neither S nor SD would cry if liberals disappeared from national politics in the next legislature.
While the moderates and Christian Democrats are remarkably low. M and KD have started a collaboration with SD and are willing to negotiate the budget directly with the party to go through their budget. The moderates believe that the budget process is already too unstable and do not want to expose future government policy to even greater uncertainty.
But they don’t want to ruin Sabuni’s ability to steer the party in their direction by discussing the matter, at least not this week. Each season has its vegetables.
And because Nyamko Sabunis Opponents of the party are pushing a line that in practice runs the risk of leaving liberals out of influence over all government alternatives, it appears that the party leadership will take home the party council on Sunday. Many see the right turn as the only chance to make it big at the party.
In fact, even those who deeply disapprove of Sabuni’s proposal believe that she will win the party council. So it would be great if she lost, but at the same time it is important how she wins, will it be by a good margin or fairly even? If so, the debate continues and it can be fatal at the fall national gathering in November. What will probably be a meeting in the flesh without digital limitations.
Those who go home like Sunday’s losers will deal with their disappointment in different ways. Some are passivated, some drag the fight to the national assembly, some become center-right parties, but a group will surely adapt, like the situation and continue to work loyally for the party.
For the party leader herself, a victory on Sunday means she doesn’t have to resign. And that’s a lot.
