[ad_1]
In the report, the Swedish Public Health Agency presents a scenario, called “Scenario 0”, for the spread of infection until February 28, 2021. The report says:
“A basic assumption in the scenario is that the contacts remain at a limited level during the period. The scenario shows that the strong increase in falls will decrease in December and will slowly decrease again towards the middle of the month ”.
At the same time, the authority’s own statistics show that the number of cases has not started to decrease, despite the fact that we have passed mid-December (see graph below).
The statistics on the number of cases on the website of the Swedish Public Health Agency are updated until Thursday 17 December inclusive. During a seven-day period ending December 17, 46,352 cases were reported.
This is the highest number of cases in seven days and 6,014 cases more than in the previous seven-day period, December 4-10, when 40,338 cases were reported.
During the seven-day period from November 27 to December 3, 35,864 cases were reported.
Chart from the Swedish Public Health Agency of the number of cases reported in Sweden from the beginning of the pandemic to December 17. The highest numbers were recorded recently.
The Public Health Agency writes in the report:
“There is great uncertainty about the continued development, as the current trend in most regions in mid-December 2020 is difficult to determine, that is, if cases are increasing, decreasing or if the region is on a plateau.” .
Furthermore, the authority writes that “the scenario has been developed to form the basis of planning”, and that it should not be perceived as “worst case”. The Swedish Public Health Agency also notes that the spread of the infection is currently “very uncertain”.
Below are the charts of the Public Health Agency scenario, in all Swedish regions.
Scroll through: this is what the scenario looks like region by region
The images show the scenario of the Swedish Public Health Agency for all regions. The red bars show actual cases up to December 11, while the blue curve shows the simulation of the spread of the infection by the Public Health Agency up to March 1.
