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Several major outbreaks and outbreaks have been linked to major events or parties during the pandemic. Many countries around the world have also imposed strict restrictions to limit the number of people who are allowed to gather in one place.
In Sweden, and in many other countries, discussions about how many people should be able to attend public meetings have heated up. In early March, the government introduced a ban on meetings with more than 500 participants, that number dropped to 50 a few weeks later and has now dropped to eight. But what is the risk of someone in a group of a certain size having COVID-19 right now?
American researchers have produced a map that shows just that. It is Joshua S. Weitz and his research team at the Georgia Institute of Technology who want people to more easily understand what risk is like in their country or region. The results, which describe their work, have been published in the scientific journal Nature human behavior.
READ MORE: The ceiling is lowered for meetings, this applies
Källa: Covid-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool Joshua Weitz / Clio Andris Georgia Institute of Technology
“Something we can imagine”
They have used figures on the number of reported cases, from the Public Health Agency in the case of Sweden, and included a probable obscure figure for unreported cases.
– Statistics, such as the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants or the number of positive tests, are not part of our daily life. But being part of a group of 5, 10, 20, 50 or 500 people is something we can imagine, like having a dinner party, going to a bar, listening to music or going to big soccer games, says Joshua. S. Weitz.
In the United States, they almost have Thanksgiving in mind, but Joshua S. Weitz and his colleagues are adding more and more countries to the map using regularly updated national health data.
– I hope this can be of use in Europe, in countries like Sweden, when we approach weekends like winter holidays when we usually meet indoors for a long time. Especially across generational boundaries, as there is a great risk of more serious cases, he says.
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Difference in different types of collections.
Joshua S. Weitz points out that the risk of someone in a group becoming infected, as the map shows, is not the same as the risk of becoming infected.
– Of course, there is a difference if 50 people meet and sit on their own picnic blankets in a park, compared to if 20 people gather indoors without a mask and eat together. Then there is a higher risk of spread during the smaller collection due to its nature, he says.
They strive to make people understand the real risk of social gatherings and act accordingly. They hope that a better-informed society will also be more secure.
– People can take steps in the right direction, such as deciding not to attend a meeting, reducing the number of participants, wearing a mask, or even meeting outdoors, says Joshua S. Weitz.
READ MORE: Eleven Europeans on fear of second wave crown
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