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Of: TT
Published:
February 1 | Photo: Cem Ozdel / Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP / TT
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu salute at a meeting in the Turkish capital, Ankara, in August.
The escalation of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan runs the risk of becoming a ignition spark for a major conflict in the Caucasus, according to FOI’s Jakob Hedenskog.
– For a long time it has been a great concern, he says.
What is happening in the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh?
Clashes between the countries have taken place before, but this time they seem to be of a rather serious kind, according to Jakob Hedenskog, a security policy analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI).
Dozens of people have died in two days of fighting, according to information that has reached them. Tanks and helicopters have been shelled and the death toll may rise to 100, according to Hedenskog, who fears the situation will be worse than in 2016, when some 200 people were killed in four days of fighting.
– There is a growing factor here that seems like it could be something bigger that is not far from the war of the nineties. That risk cannot be ruled out and neighboring countries would have to intervene in some way.
What speaks for and against continued escalation?
Russia initially primarily supports Armenia and, among other things, has pledged to intervene in the country’s defense in the event of a regular attack. Azerbaijan receives great support from Turkey.
– I don’t think that Russia is interested in escalation, but Russia always has the ability to turn every crisis into something positive. Russia’s long-term goal is to control the peace process and put its own troops on the ground in the conflict zone. In this way, it strengthens its influence over both Armenia and Azerbaijan, while at the same time reducing the influence of Western powers in what Russia sees as its sphere of interest.
Hedenskog points to the conflicts in Syria and Libya, where Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides but in practice divide influence between them. The conflict could also spread to Iran, which has a larger Azerbaijani population than Azerbaijan.
– It has been a possible scenario for a long time, that this runs the risk of resulting in a regional conflict with the risk of spreading, especially in the Middle East, to Iran and Turkey, and in the Caucasus in general.
How violent can an escalation be?
Both Azerbaijan and Armenia have long been fortified with primarily Russian weapons, but Azerbaijan is clearly stronger, according to Hedenskog.
– It is a big difference compared to the 90s, that countries are now equipped to the teeth. An escalation of the conflict today would have very devastating consequences.
What happens next?
– Probably a Russian-led initiative for a ceasefire to stop the most serious battles, says Jakob Hedenskog.
Neither Russia, Turkey nor Iran want a major war in the Caucasus, according to the FOI analyst, who sees a possible development in which the three great powers are trying to handle conflict resolution in a similar way to how Russia and Turkey did. In Syria.
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