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Sweden will face Finland in tonight’s JVM final, a repeat of last year’s bronze match in the Czech Republic when Juniorkronorna won and secured third place in the tournament.
Finland finished second in Group A behind Canada and won three of their four games in the group stage.
“We know a lot of the players and we’ve met a lot of times and it will be a lot of fun and a wonderful and fun challenge to try and beat Finland,” says Arvid Costmar.
– It is clear that it is special, the neighboring country and us since the U16 always meet in Finnkampen and the match I mainly remember is last year’s bronze. It’s the closest thing to memory, says Alexander Holtz.
Holtz is 1 + 2 before the quarterfinals. Photo: Bildbyrån
Finnish hill Topi Niemelä leads the team’s internal scoring (2 + 5) before Anton Lundell (3 + 3), who is the captain of the Finnish team.
– Of course, he is a very skilled player that he was with last year and he did well, so clearly he is a good player, but if we are close to him and play our game, he will have a difficult match, says Costmar.
We enlisted the help of Sportlogiq’s advanced statistics, video and analytics to present an overview of how all of Sweden’s networks performed in the five-on-five matches.
We measure the four games in the group stage and the chain must have at least 10 minutes of ice together.
This is how the Juniorkronorna chains have been presented:
Holtz – Sundsvik – Raymond
xGF 1.71
xGA: 0.41
xGF%: 80.8%
Commentary: The chain creates the most shots on goal in the Swedish team. 1.71 expected goals / match. When the chain is on ice, opponents create 0.41 goals / match against them.
The first chain almost always meets the best players from the opposing team, that is, the first chains. In technical aspects, the chain starts 38.7 percent of the time in the attack zone. Sweden’s other three chains start more frequently in the front zone than the team’s first chain.
Gunler – Costmar – Holmström
xGF: 1.48
xGA: 0.32
xGF%: 80.8%
commentary: This chain has almost as much ice time together as the first chain and creates hot shots on goal to score 1.48 forward goals / match. The strength of this chain is that you create forward while allowing at least hot shots on goal for opponents of all chains.
The chain initiates 40% of all technical opportunities in the front zone and the chain usually coincides with the forwards of the opponents 7-13.
Söderblom – Niederbach – Heineman
xGF: 1.08
xGA: 0.62
xGF%: 63.7%
Commentary: The chain has the third most amount of ice time together and meets equal players like themselves and creates 1.08 expected goals in the future / match. Of the team’s four chains, this chain releases the most backwards, 0.62 goals expected for opponents / match. The chain begins most of the team’s chains in the attack zone. 45.7% of the time.
Nybeck – Wikström – Olausson
xGF: 1.62
xGA: 0.43
xGF%: 79%
commentary: Sweden’s fourth chain has had a very limited ice time the first four games and different players have been tested. Of the various combinations, this constellation stands out in a positive way. Their ice time together is a quarter of the first string, but you create well with hot scoring opportunities and stay close. Usually they are combined with the fourth chain of the opponents. The chain starts 40% of the time in the attack zone.
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xGF: Objectives planned ahead
xGA: goals expected backwards
xGF% = Percentage based on expected forward and backward targets. In other words, how many dangerous scoring opportunities do you create forward relative to what you drop backward when you or the chain in this case are on the ice. If you create / the string more forward than backward, you have more than 50% in xGF%, which is good.
Calculation example:
First chain: xGF: 1.71 when chain is on ice forward (not individually). xGA: 0.41 when chain is on ice upside down (not individually).
The percent xGF of the chain is 1.71 divided by 2.12 (1.71 xGF + 0.41 xGA = 2.12)
1.71 / 2.12 = 80.8 percent.
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