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In the US, there is no central electoral authority like in Sweden, for example. In addition, the election in the United States is governed by 50 different electoral laws, one for each state.
Therefore, it is the institutes, news agencies and television companies that make their own estimates and forecasts at the federal level.
– Most people make the same evaluation when they award someone a victory in a state. But they want to be 99.5 percent sure they are right, says Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson.
Mix of different data
Ekengren Oscarsson takes the ABC television company as an example.
– Its computer simulations are based on historical election data, polling place surveys and prepared ballots.
How do you collect the data?
– They refuel or are ready to get the latest information. The reason we have such nice and fast reports is because a lot of work is done. Otherwise we would have had to sit and look at around 50 different electoral authorities.
That’s why Arizona is blue in SVT
SVT does not make its own election forecast, but updates to SVT’s election charts are based on US institutes and newsrooms.
– If there are three independent sources that say the same thing, SVT colors that indicate blue or red, says Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson.
Arizona is an example where not all, but at least three different sources, announced Biden as the winner at 8 p.m. Wednesday night.
– There are still big television companies that have not yet colored Arizona.
