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In the last presidential election, Donald Trump largely managed to win voters among both white men and white women. This year, the differences between the sexes appear to have stabilized somewhat, according to preliminary figures from the television channel CNN.
– The groups where Donald Trump got more votes than Hillary Clinton are the ones he’s losing now and that’s probably what makes it seem a little softer this time, says Jesper Enbom, senior lecturer in media science and communication. at Umeå University.
Some things stand out in particular compared to 2016. Support for the Democratic presidential candidate appears to have increased among the 18-29 age group compared to four years ago, from 55 to 62 percent. It wasn’t entirely unexpected, according to Jesper Enbom, who also taught at an Ohio university.
– It is with the younger voters that there is great support. Young voters tend to be more to the left, both on economic issues and on values, and the abortion issue is a typical values problem. Many young people also have large student debts, some may not have gotten a job and run the risk of doing worse than the parent generation, he says.
But at the same time increasing Additionally, there was some support for Joe Biden among seniors 65 and older, from 45 percent to 48. In the state of Florida, 47 percent of seniors voted for Biden, compared to 40 percent who voted for Clinton. It’s hard to know what that might be at such an early stage, according to Jesper Enbom.
– It may be the pandemic that Trump and his administration are not considered to have handled very well. The elderly are a particularly vulnerable group, he says.
According to CNN analysis President Donald Trump is making headway among Hispanics, especially in Florida. As in 2016, the Democratic candidate still has the largest national support in that group, 66 percent, while Trump increased support by four percentage points.
– In Miami Bay, for example, which is an area with many Latin Americans, it is progressing stronger than last time. It should be remembered that it is not a unified group. They may, for example, consist of exiled Venezuelans where Trump used the socialist specter to attract that group, Enbom says.
Dan Hedlin, Professor of Statistics at Stockholm University, he reacted above all to the great difference between the voters of the different candidates from the economic point of view. Republican voters believe that the economy is the issue that largely determines how they vote, while Democratic voters, instead, say that inequality between different ethnicities and the corona’s handling of the pandemic determine.
– Those who say they improve today vote mostly for Trump and those who say they got worse vote for Biden. That’s the way it is in Florida, he says.
Seventy-two percent of Trump voters responded that they have improved financially in the past four years, while the corresponding figure for Biden voters is 74 percent. Four years ago, the numbers were about the same, but conversely, Clinton voters felt they had improved and vice versa.
How to evaluate this type of survey?
– If you have weighed both telephone interviews and polling station surveys, it should be reasonable. The selection is quite large with almost 16,000 respondents, they probably have a large churn rate that will later be weighted, but there is nothing about it, says Dan Hedlin.
