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In the new report, the ECDC presents scenarios of how different countries in Europe may be affected by the corona pandemic, until December 25 of this year.
Among other things, the infection control authority assesses what the number of daily deaths will be like, and for Sweden it looks grim, reports DN.
“There is a 95 percent chance that the actual death toll this Christmas will be 50 to 200 people, but the most likely 100 to 140,” ECDC analyst Helen Johnson, one of the authors, told the newspaper. behind the report.
If that scenario materializes, Sweden will have more daily deaths than ever during the pandemic. Previously, 115 deaths in one day was the highest figure, on April 8 and 15.
“Rises” and then stabilizes in December
In her analysis, Helene Johnson has assumed that the behavior of the Swedes to avoid infection looks the same as in early April, DN writes. It has used data from Google, which shows what the movement patterns of people look like in stores, public transport, workplaces and the like.
In that scenario, we see the death toll in Sweden rise to stabilize in mid-December and then perhaps decrease if the more cautious behaviors of the public in everyday life continue at this time, Helen Johnson tells Dagens Nyheter.
In a second scenario, Helen Johnson and her colleagues have examined what the death toll would be like if no steps were taken to prevent infection. Depending on the scenario, this could result in the death of 400 people with COVID-19 in one day.
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