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With the rapid development of the infection, the Corona curve may peak between Lucia and the thirteenth weekend. This is what the Skåne Region has to prepare for. In the worst case with 250 hospitalized and 30 on intravenous treatment.
In that case, Scanian’s health care burden is three times greater than at the highest peaks this spring, when at most 91 covid patients were indoors.
– But it is important that these are precisely scenarios with which we relate when we talk about strategies. We follow them so that we can make real long-term forecasts, says Mats E Persson, head of crisis management staff for the Skåne Region.
But the scenarios still show what development can look like and what the health system should plan for. It is based on theoretical calculations and the worst variant, scenario 1, is based on the process this spring, for example in Stockholm.
Right now the real is aiming however, the evolution of hospital admissions is more pronounced than in the worst case.
– Yes, and unfortunately we cannot say with certainty that we have broken the curve. Our hope is that the stricter general guidelines for Skåne will lead to that, but we don’t know, says Mats E Persson.
– But if everyone follows the advice, the curve can be leveled sooner.
The care burden curves have been developed by the Skåne Region analysis group and reported to the hospital management.
In Skåne hospitals, fervent preparations are underway to increase the number of covidual patient care locations and employees will be relocated to serve them.
In Sus, there are plans to gradually open more than 200 care locations in both Lund and Malmö by December. There is also provision to open more IVA locations, but so far the 65 locations in Skåne are estimated to be sufficient as fewer covid patients now end up on ventilators.
Create strong pressureespecially since disease rates among healthcare workers are also increasing.
It is still uncertain what it will be like with the staff Christmas break.
Jan Lundin, Chief Negotiator for the Skåne Region, told HD and Sydsvenskan this week that they are working to be able to grant staff the Christmas leave to the fullest extent possible.
– There is a planning. But it depends entirely on how the situation develops and whether the new restrictions have an effect and impact, he says.
– This spring we received similar questions about summer vacation. So we still manage to carry out normal vacation planning. That is our goal for Christmas, at the same time that we must be realistic and have a different plan for a scenario that is significantly more difficult.
