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What is really happening in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed area that, according to international law, belongs to Azerbaijan. The region has always had an Armenian population. In Soviet times, the population was mixed. During the civil war of the 1990s, Azerbaijanis were forced to leave their homes. After Armenia took de facto control of the area, they were not allowed to return and since then the area has been embroiled in frozen conflict.
– Provocations and shootings on both sides of the conflict have occurred regularly, especially in recent years. Last summer, however, 16 people got into a fight. On Sunday morning, according to Armenia, Azerbaijan attacked the city of Stepanakert with Grad rockets. Armenia responded by shooting down two Azerbaijani helicopters. Both parties blame each other, and since there are no international observers in the area, it is difficult to obtain objective information about what happened.
Photo: Stefan Rothmaier
Why is the frozen conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh now breaking out again?
– In recent years, Azerbaijan has invested heavily in building its army and military force, which is possible thanks to oil revenues. Azerbaijani leaders have always said that Nagorno-Karabakh must be withdrawn. During the war, 250,000 refugees were received and the country still has one of the highest ratios of internal refugees per capita in the world. The pressure within Azerbaijan to take back the area has always been strong and is increasing as its military has improved.
Armenia, which controls the area, has fewer resources but a powerful ally in the form of Russia. Armenia has also invested a lot of resources in weapons. Both parties have been guilty of provocations, while the participation of the international community in the conflict has been minimal. In practice, the problem has been left to Russia, which is the largest regional player in the region. Russia has good relations with both parties, but regards Christian Armenia as its historical ally in the Caucasus.
What will happen now?
– The risk of a full-scale war is constantly increasing. In Stepanakert, the authorities have issued war permits. Russia has a military base in Armenia and it is clear that in a war situation it will help its ally. It is also a factor holding back Azerbaijan. But we have seen before that in a situation where provocation follows provocation, events can begin to unfold on their own.
Read more: Helicopters downed: conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia intensifies
