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From: TT
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Photo: Vahid Salemi / AP / TT
Protesters burn a photo of US President Donald Trump and incoming President Joe Biden during a protest outside Israel’s Foreign Ministry on Saturday, the day after the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
The assassination of an Iranian nuclear physicist is causing the Middle East to explode. Tehran’s archenemies appear to be united in the face of a power shift in the White House that has promised diplomacy rather than sanctions.
– Israel wants to make it difficult for the United States to enter the nuclear energy deal again, says analyst Jan Hallenberg.
Did incoming US President Joe Biden’s hope of reviving the Iran nuclear deal die as nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh took his last breath last Friday?
It is determined in part by how Iran will respond to the assassination. Tehran has vowed revenge, which it has blamed on Israel, which in turn has not commented.
If Iran refrains from a forceful response, it is a win for the country’s enemies per se. If the reaction is the opposite, it gives Donald Trump an excuse to strike back at Tehran, as a final show of force before leaving the White House in January.
Relations have been strained since Trump in 2018 withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal and reintroduced tough sanctions against Iran.
Don’t believe in attack
But Trump will not attack, unless the Iranians attack and kill American soldiers, believes Jan Hallenberg, research leader at the Foreign Policy Institute.
– He’s not a warrior like that, but he’ll fight back. And therefore the Iranians will not attack either, he tells TT.
Difficult answers from either side would put Biden in a difficult position. And pushing his desire for the United States to return to the path of diplomacy to sink may well have been one of the goals of the operation, according to some experts.
“The motive for assassinating Fakhrizadeh was not to thwart Iran’s war potential, it was to thwart diplomacy,” Mark Fitzpatrick, who previously worked on disarmament at the State Department, wrote on Twitter.
Painted like an enemy
According to Western countries, Fakhrizadeh played an important role in Iran’s nuclear energy program. Israel, which views Iran as an existential threat, has presented the nuclear physicist as one of its greatest enemies and the mastermind behind the country’s possible nuclear weapons project.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also spoken out strongly against Biden’s diplomatic will toward Iran. And if Israel is behind the assassination, it raises questions about the timing. Was it a long-planned operation or is there a connection to Israel’s main ally that will soon be leaving the White House?
– There are only two states that can carry out an assassination of this type and that have political motives to do so, the United States and Israel, says Hallenberg.
– However, killing a man like this is extremely complicated, so I think planning has been going on for a long time. But the consequence will also be that it complicates Biden, which the Trump administration does not think is particularly sad.
Secret meeting
Just days before the assassination, Netanyahu is said to have traveled to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. According to the Israeli media, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was also present. Riyadh, however, denies this, despite constant leaks from Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The meeting, and the possible deliberate leaks that have surrounded it, may have served to show a united front against Iran to send a signal to Biden that his planned policies will meet opposition.
This week, White House adviser Jared Kushner is in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, officially in an attempt to mediate the conflict between the two yellow countries. But there is no shortage of topics to discuss.
Kushner has participated in the negotiation of historic normalization agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. They all harbor, like Saudi Arabia, a deep distrust of Iran, which is seen as an explanation for the Arab countries abandoning the Arab League position of not establishing relations with Israel until the conflict with the Palestinians is resolved.
Feather in hat
The United States awaits more similar deals before Trump ends. If the Saudis sign a normalization agreement with the Israelis, other Arab countries are expected to follow suit.
But Riyadh has long said no, at least officially.
“For the Trump administration, it would be a feather on the top of a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia before his departure,” says Hallenberg.
– But the Saudis are cautious and cannot meet the Israelis too quickly. I think they are resting on their laurels to collaborate with Biden.
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