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Flock immunity prevails in a population when much of the population is immune to a disease that even those without immunity receive indirect protection.
Based on previous estimates, about 60 percent need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity.
But math teacher Tom Britton, along with other researchers, has performed new calculations showing that the flock’s immunity to covid-19 is already occurring at 40-45 percent, which Svenska Dagbladet first reported. Researchers have assumed that each infected person infects an average of 2.5 others.
Socially active people are the most infected
This would mean that the spread of the infection in Stockholm would already stop in mid-June, that is, in one month.
According to Britton, the 60 percent estimate is based on vaccination of the population. He and his colleagues, on the other hand, have assumed the spread of the infection in the population.
– Then it is the slightly more active ones that become infected and therefore become immune. Those who remain after the infection has spread are slightly less outgoing and therefore less contagious if they were infected, Britton says on Expressen TV.
Tegnell: can sue
Britton’s findings have yet to be verified for quality. But state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell believes they can sue.
– There are some articles that advocate what seems quite vindictive, that you get an immunity effect even before reaching this full herd immunity. That’s a bit of what we see in Stockholm, he tells TT.
But that doesn’t mean the danger is over, Tegnell says.
– We will still have a lot of spread, but at a low level.
– It is not a sign that everything can return to normal.
The flock’s immunity against covid-19 has been talked about in Sweden for a long time. Former state epidemiologist Annika Linde was one of the first to raise her.
“That as many people as possible become infected and become immune, without becoming seriously ill,” he said.
However, Karin Tegmark Wisell, Head of Department of the Public Health Authority, replied that there was no such strategy.
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