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One Wennergren is a professor of theoretical biology and Tom Britton is a professor of mathematics.
Both calculated a forecast of the total number of deaths at covid-19 in Sweden, and came up with the same forecast.
– My estimate is that we landed between 10-20,000 dead, says Uno Wennergren in Aktuellt on SVT.
When Anders Tegnell spoke about the situation globally and in Sweden at today’s press conference, he meant that the numbers are so high and the scale so large that it is “difficult to understand”.
“Now we are approaching 2,500 deaths (in Sweden), which is a lot, a figure that we have not seen with any other disease in a long time,” he said.
But where will it end, how many lives will the pandemic require in Sweden?
At SVT Current, two independent teachers attempted a longer-term calculation. Uno Wennergren, professor of theoretical biology and Tom Britton, professor of mathematics, calculated the state of the future based on data available in Sweden and other countries.
Both land at a figure of between 10,000 and 20,000 dead Swedes.
– I believe and expect the bottom of the range, says Tom Britton.
Photo: Niklas Björling / SU
Tom britton
“The figures become very abstract”
One Wennergren emphasizes that this is an uncertain forecast, but that his initial calculations showed more deaths.
– Now it has sounded a bit and then the prognosis drops from 20-40,000 to 10-20,000 people and shows that it is very important to keep the spread of infection low, he says.
In comparison, a year of severe flu can require around 2,000 lives.
Photo: ELISABETH OHLSON WALLIN
Uno Wennergren, professor of theoretical biology.
In Current News, state epidemiologist deputy Anders Wallensten also commented on the calculations.
– Every death is tragic and those numbers are very abstract, but if you relate it to other infections, you understand that it is a serious event, he says.
He does not want to comment on whether the authority has made similar calculations.
– We are mainly working to deal with the situation from time to time, we are not focusing on calculating death rates but more on measures that can lead to less spread of infection, says Anders Wallensten.
The calculations presented at Aktuellt had no date for when the pandemic is expected to end.
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