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How does it look in measurements right now?
It’s stable leadership for the Democratic presidential candidate Joe biden. In national polls, which are then applied to the entire United States, it leads by 52 percent on average, versus 42 percent on average for Donald trump.
The special thing is that the measurements barely move, they look the same from last spring. Otherwise, opinion polls in the months leading up to the US election are usually more of a roller coaster ride. Here the curves are very fixed and do not seem disturbed by debates or various proposals.
So stable management for Joe Biden, nationwide. If you look at the changing key states, the states that in practice often decide presidential elections, Biden leads there too, but the margins are smaller there. But it leads in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, which are important key states.
How sure can you be that the numbers are correct?
We’re not sure. But opinion polls have made some changes compared to the last elections, when they received criticism. They have changed their method to obtain safer results. Among other things, highly educated voters are known to respond much more frequently to opinion poll questions. Now opinion polls have started to weight the polls to balance the groups.
Then there are the factors that are difficult to measure, enthusiasm is such a difficult factor to measure. It’s one thing people say they should vote for, but will they really, too? We’ll see it on Election Day, November 3.
